Prime Minister Christopher Luxon believes the regulator should have cut the borrowing cost by 50 basis points, and experts are confident that if macroeconomic data allows, another cut will follow at the October 8 meeting. Westpac Banking Corp. senior economist Satish Ranchhod said recent data suggests a trend shift: while the retail sector still faces difficulties, discretionary spending is rising, though industries such as hospitality show no change yet.
The U.S. dollar has lost the positions gained last week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium hinted at further monetary easing amid weaker labor market performance. However, he also stressed that hawkish rhetoric, the base forecast, and the shifting balance of risks may require cautious adjustment. The CME FedWatch Tool now estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 meeting at 80.9%.
The long-term trend remains upward, but the instrument has reached the support area of 0.5850–0.5823, from which it rebounded toward 0.5975 and 0.6040. If the area of 0.5850–0.5823 is broken, the trend may turn downward, making short positions toward 0.5550 relevant. The price trades below EMA (21) and EMA (190), pointing to a short-term downtrend and possible long-term reversal. RSI (14) is in the neutral zone, allowing both buy and sell options.
The medium-term trend remains downward: the price approached zone 2 (0.5780–0.5763) and rebounded in a correction, with expected testing of the resistance area 0.5954–0.5940. If broken, the trend will switch to upward; otherwise, short positions with targets of 0.5877 and 0.5800 will remain relevant.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance levels: 0.6040, 0.6113, 0.6220.
Support levels: 0.5923, 0.5832.
Trading Scenarios
Long positions may be opened above 0.5850 with a target of 0.5975 and a stop-loss at 0.5795. Implementation period: 9–12 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.5795 with a target of 0.5650 and a stop-loss at 0.5865.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 0.5855
Take Profit: 0.5975
Stop Loss: 0.5795
Key Levels: 0.5832, 0.5923, 0.6040, 0.6113, 0.6220
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry Point: 0.5795
Take Profit: 0.5650
Stop Loss: 0.5865
Key Levels: 0.5832, 0.5923, 0.6040, 0.6113, 0.6220