Fresh labour-market data released today showed that initial jobless claims rose to 232,000 from 219,000, above the forecast of 223,000. Continuing claims also increased from 1.918 million to 1.947 million. Overall, the sector continues to show signs of cooling, but it remains unclear whether this will be enough for the Federal Reserve to justify another rate cut in December. Policymakers offered contrasting views: Governor Christopher Waller signalled support for further easing, citing concerns about the sharp slowdown in hiring. Meanwhile, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson took a more cautious stance, noting that the latest cut was justified given rising labour-market risks, but the current rate level is now close to neutral — meaning any additional moves should be taken with caution. Most analysts still expect no policy changes in December unless the Fed sees convincing evidence of rising unemployment and declining job creation.
Eurozone
The euro is strengthening against the yen and the pound while trading mixed against the US dollar.
Investors are assessing the European Central Bank’s newly published supervisory priorities for the next three years. Officials noted that the EU banking system remains resilient, profitability is strong, and asset quality is stable thanks to economic growth and low inflation. However, banks must remain alert to potential risks: geopolitical tensions, shifts in global trade policy, climate- and weather-related disruptions, demographic imbalances, and technological failures all increase structural vulnerability and raise the likelihood of extreme, low-probability events. Additionally, China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng and Germany’s Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil reached an agreement to strengthen bilateral relations and end months of uncertainty caused by restrictions on Chinese rare-earth exports to Europe.
United Kingdom
The pound is losing ground against the euro and the US dollar while showing a mixed dynamic against the yen.
On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), traders will focus on October inflation data. Monthly CPI is expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.4%, while the annual figure is projected to slow from 3.8% to 3.5%. Despite the decline, inflation remains well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, reinforcing expectations of continued dovish policy into next month. Based on current inflation trends, markets anticipate a total rate reduction of about –59 basis points by December of next year.
Japan
The yen is weakening against the euro and the US dollar and shows mixed movement versus the pound.
Investors are closely monitoring the latest comments from key officials. Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he informed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of the central bank’s intention to continue gradually raising borrowing costs to firmly anchor inflation at the 2.0% target, adding that the board will act based on incoming data. Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern about the yen’s volatility after the currency fell to a new nine-month low against the dollar. She noted that the government will continue to closely monitor the situation — another signal that FX intervention remains on the table.
Australia
The Australian dollar is strengthening against its major peers — the euro, the pound, the yen, and the US dollar.
The market focus is on the minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. Earlier this month, the regulator kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, emphasising a cautious approach to further easing amid elevated inflation. According to the minutes, the board highlighted several factors that could justify maintaining borrowing costs at current levels, including evidence of stronger-than-expected demand recovery or persistently high inflation. However, there are also scenarios where additional monetary easing may be warranted — particularly if the labour market cools more sharply or if the economic recovery slows.
Oil
Oil prices are attempting to rise, supported by conflicting market drivers.
On one hand, the upward bias is fuelled by the possibility of new US sanctions targeting Russian businesses, currently being drafted by Congress, as well as the rising likelihood of a military confrontation between the US and Venezuela, one of the world’s key oil producers. On the other hand, the bullish momentum is limited by the resumption of exports from the port of Novorossiysk after a two-day shutdown caused by terminal damage. Later today at 23:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory report. The previous reading showed a build of 1.300 million barrels, and another increase could put additional pressure on oil prices.