Market participants, including forex traders, are waiting for fresh macroeconomic data now that the government shutdown has ended. Investors will focus in particular on the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting and the labour market reports, which could strongly influence the regulator’s next steps. If the employment data point to cooling, officials could return to more “dovish” rhetoric in December; however, for now most of them prefer a cautious pause in the monetary policy cycle to assess the impact of measures already taken.

Meanwhile, on Friday President Donald Trump scrapped import tariffs on more than two hundred types of food products, including coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in response to public discontent over high prices. Also on Friday, the authorities announced a trade agreement between the US and Switzerland under which tariffs for that country will be cut from 39.0% to 15.0%, while Swiss companies will invest 200.0 billion dollars in the US economy.

Eurozone

The euro is weakening against the pound and the US dollar but shows mixed dynamics versus the yen on the forex market.

Today the European Commission published its latest forecasts. Experts believe that gross domestic product (GDP) in the twenty countries using the single currency will grow by 1.3% this year, compared with 0.9% in the previous period and a prior estimate of 0.9%, supported by stronger demand ahead of higher US trade tariffs. However, next year growth could slow to 1.2%, below the previously projected 1.4%. In addition, preliminary estimates suggest that the consumer price index will ease from 2.4% to 2.1% in 2025 and to 1.9% in 2026.

United Kingdom

The pound is strengthening against the euro, the yen and the US dollar.

Investor attention is focused on a report from research firm Rightmove Group Ltd. In November, house prices fell from 0.3% to –1.8% month-on-month, the lowest reading since 2012, and from –0.1% to –0.5% year-on-year. Analysts note that expectations of a substantial tax hike in the government’s autumn budget are adding extra pressure, while the reduction in asking prices for properties already on the market has reached its highest level since February last year.

Japan

The yen is weakening against the US dollar and the pound but shows mixed performance against the euro.

The currency is under pressure from preliminary GDP figures: in the third quarter the indicator fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, missing expectations for 0.6% growth, and by 1.8% year-on-year versus 2.5% previously. This marks the first slowdown in around eighteen months and reflects weaker housing investment and lower export volumes due to US trade tariffs, which rose by 4.5%, only partly offset by a 2.2% increase in government spending.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the use of military force in the Taiwan conflict could be interpreted as a situation threatening Japan’s survival. In response, the Chinese authorities accused Japan of interfering in internal affairs and issued a warning advising Chinese citizens to refrain from travelling to the Land of the Rising Sun, a move that could weigh on the tourism sector.

Australia

The Australian dollar is weakening against the euro, the pound, the yen and the US currency.

Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish the minutes of its latest meeting. Earlier this month, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 3.6% and signalled a cautious approach to further monetary easing due to elevated inflation, stronger-than-expected consumer demand and a recovering housing market. At the press conference, Governor Michele Bullock suggested that the “dovish” cycle might be nearing its end, and the minutes may provide additional insight into officials’ views on the future path of policy.

Oil

Oil prices are recovering, supported by the prospect of new sanctions against Russian businesses.

According to President Donald Trump, Republican lawmakers are working on legislation that would impose restrictions on any country that continues to trade with Russia. He added that Iran could be the first to appear on the sanctions list. On the other hand, crude is facing pressure from the resumption of operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub after a two-day shutdown caused by terminal damage.