According to the latest figures, Canadian imports from the U.S. rose by 1.4% in June — the first monthly gain in four months. The standout category was industrial machinery, which jumped an impressive 27.7% (a sign that Canadian firms may be ramping up capital investment despite global headwinds). In contrast, consumer goods imports slipped 4.8%, and pharmaceuticals fell 8.8%, underscoring a shift in spending priorities toward long-term production capacity rather than short-term consumption.
Exports showed a modest 0.9% uptick, but that only partially offsets the 11.3% drop seen in spring after Washington’s tariff hikes. Energy products remain Canada’s trade backbone, rising 3.8% overall, with crude oil exports up 3.6% and refined petroleum products surging 19.0%. Even so, the trade deficit widened from $5.5B in May to $5.9B in June — a reminder that the overall balance is still under pressure.
On the U.S. side, the dollar index (USDX) opened the day near 97.90, edging slightly higher. Political and monetary policy developments are adding extra layers of intrigue. President Donald Trump has named Stephen Miran — currently Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — to a temporary seat on the Federal Reserve Board. Known for pushing aggressive rate cuts, Miran’s influence could tilt the Fed’s September decision toward easing. Trump even hinted that Miran’s performance could determine whether he eventually replaces Jerome Powell as Fed Chair — a statement likely to stir market chatter.
As of this morning, the CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut (from 4.25% to 4.00%) in September at a striking 91.4%. For currency traders, this keeps USD/CAD on the radar as one of the more sensitive pairs to shifts in interest rate expectations.
Technical Picture
On the daily chart, the pair is testing the resistance boundary of a newly formed ascending channel, with parameters roughly between 1.3900 and 1.3600. Technical indicators show momentum cooling: EMA bands on the Alligator indicator are narrowing, fast moving averages hover just above the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator is printing fresh corrective bars above zero. This setup often precedes a short-term pullback — though not always.
- Support: 1.3660, 1.3540
- Resistance: 1.3810, 1.4000
USD/CAD and North American trade flowsTrading Scenarios
Primary (SELL STOP): A confirmed break below 1.3660 could open the door to 1.3540. Stop-loss: 1.3730. Timeframe: 7+ days.
Alternative (BUY STOP): Sustained trading above 1.3810 would likely trigger a move toward 1.4000. Stop-loss: 1.3750.
Key Levels
1.3540, 1.3660, 1.3810, 1.4000
Broader Market Context
Beyond the immediate forex implications, Canada’s heavier tilt toward U.S. industrial imports suggests deeper alignment in the North American supply chain. For traders, the interplay between Fed rate expectations, commodity prices, and cross-border trade flows will remain critical in shaping USD/CAD’s next major move.