The U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations of renewed dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. In August, nonfarm payrolls fell from 79,000 to 22,000 versus forecasts of 75,000. Average hourly earnings slowed from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year, holding at 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate ticked higher from 4.2% to 4.3%, in line with estimates. Still, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut remains below 12%, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
In Canada, employment dropped further from –40.8K to –65.5K versus expectations of +7.5K, while the unemployment rate climbed from 6.9% to 7.1% — the highest since May 2016 and above forecasts of 7.0%. Average hourly wages rose slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%, signaling modest inflationary pressures. Such weak results are likely to put significant pressure on the Bank of Canada, and markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.50% at the September 17 meeting.
On Thursday, Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne remarked that the country underwent a major economic “restructuring” in 1945 to become an industrial power, and a similar moment is now unfolding. He said the government will adopt new technologies, including artificial intelligence, to improve efficiency and enhance services for Canadians, while also warning of possible public sector cutbacks.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands move flat, with the price range holding steady but wide enough to accommodate current market activity. MACD is rising, maintaining a weak buy signal (histogram above the signal line), attempting to hold above zero. Stochastic points upward but hovers near 80, signaling overbought risks for the U.S. dollar in the very short term.
Resistance levels: 1.3839, 1.3878, 1.3924, 1.3958.
Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3765, 1.3726, 1.3685.
Trading Scenarios
Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 1.3839 with a target at 1.3924. Stop-loss at 1.3800. Implementation horizon: 2–3 days.
Short positions may be considered after a pullback from 1.3839 and a subsequent breakout below 1.3800 with a target at 1.3726. Stop-loss at 1.3839.
Scenario
Timeframe: Intraday
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 1.3840
Take Profit: 1.3924
Stop Loss: 1.3800
Key levels: 1.3685, 1.3726, 1.3765, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.3878, 1.3924, 1.3958
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 1.3800
Take Profit: 1.3726
Stop Loss: 1.3839
Key levels: 1.3685, 1.3726, 1.3765, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.3878, 1.3924, 1.3958