Market participants note that only about 20% of analysts now expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the near term, compared to 46% last week. This cautious stance comes despite supportive macroeconomic indicators: Q2 GDP rose from 0.3% to 0.5%, the GDP deflator held steady at 3.0%, and household spending improved to 0.4%.

In the U.S., the dollar index (USDX) remains near 97.70. For forex markets, the focus is on the Federal Reserve. Weak August labor market data boosted expectations of monetary easing at the September 17 Fed meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Nonfarm payrolls slowed sharply from 79K to 22K, while ADP data showed private-sector employment growth of just 54K.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the USD/JPY forex pair is consolidating inside an upward channel (154.00–146.00).

  • Resistance: 149.10, 151.20

  • Support: 147.30, 144.30

Technical indicators in this forex analysis remain supportive of bullish momentum. The Alligator EMAs diverge upward, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows corrective bars in positive territory.

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Enter above 149.10, target 151.20, stop-loss 148.50 (7+ days).

  • Sell Stop: Enter below 147.30, target 144.30, stop-loss 148.20.

USD/JPY

Forex Forecast

This USD/JPY forecast suggests that a breakout above 149.10 could open the way to new highs near 151.20. Conversely, renewed selling below 147.30 might shift sentiment toward 144.30. For forex trading strategies, the upcoming Fed meeting and Japan’s political uncertainty remain the key drivers.