The consumer price index slipped from 0.0% to –0.1% month-on-month and settled around 0.2% year-on-year, remaining within the Swiss National Bank’s target range below 2.0%. Signs of mild acceleration may ease pressure on officials to lower borrowing costs further amid disproportionately high U.S. tariffs (39%) introduced by President Donald Trump. However, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel previously argued that negative rates create obstacles for businesses and savers, while the Swiss government works to mitigate potential fallout from U.S. trade policy. The Federal Council has assessed the potential impact, noting that “a broad economic downturn is not currently expected.” The last policy adjustment came in June, when rates were cut from 0.25% to 0.00% due to weakening inflation at –0.1% in May — the first negative print since 2021 — and to curb the franc’s sharp rally. The Swiss currency has gained 11.3% against the U.S. dollar year-to-date, with USD/CHF falling below the psychological 0.8000 level in June for the first time since 2011. At the time, the central bank projected average inflation of 0.2% for 2025, rising to 0.5% and 0.7% in 2026 and 2027 if rates remain at zero.

U.S. investors, meanwhile, remain focused on Friday’s labor market report, which showed unemployment rising from 4.2% to 4.3%, while payroll growth slowed sharply to just 22K from 79K (vs. 75K expected). Healthcare led job creation (+31K), while social assistance saw steep losses (–16K). Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% month-on-month, while easing from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. This confirms cooling in the sector and raises expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 90% probability. Meanwhile, average U.S. mortgage rates fell by 5 basis points last week, hitting their lowest since early April: 30-year fixed rates for loans up to $806.5K dropped to 6.64% from 6.69%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the pair is consolidating, preparing to retreat from the resistance line of the descending channel (0.8050–0.7600).

Technical indicators have turned bearish again: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, while the AO histogram is in the sell zone, forming corrective bars.

  • Support levels: 0.7920, 0.7730.

  • Resistance levels: 0.8050, 0.8230.

Trading Scenarios

  • Short positions may be opened after a breakout below 0.7920 with a target at 0.7730. Stop-loss at 0.8000. Horizon: 7+ days.

  • Long positions may be considered after consolidation above 0.8050 with a target at 0.8230. Stop-loss at 0.7960.

USD/CHF

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry: 0.7920

  • Take Profit: 0.7730

  • Stop Loss: 0.8000

  • Key levels: 0.7730, 0.7920, 0.8050, 0.8230

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry: 0.8050

  • Take Profit: 0.8230

  • Stop Loss: 0.7960

  • Key levels: 0.7730, 0.7920, 0.8050, 0.8230