On August 7, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) issued a statement confirming that more than 60.0% of goods exported to the United States will be subject to new tariffs, with rates on certain categories rising to 39.0%. This figure is markedly higher than the tariff levels faced by the EU (15.0%), the UK (10.0%), and Japan (15.0%). The disparity could significantly undermine the competitiveness of Swiss products in the U.S. market. The Swiss government has announced its intention to continue negotiations with Washington in hopes of reducing the tariffs and will refrain from introducing retaliatory measures. For businesses likely to be affected, Bern plans to issue recommendations for employee compensation in the event of layoffs.
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is currently holding at 97.90, with traders’ attention firmly on the September Federal Reserve meeting. Market consensus now places a 91.4% probability on a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would lower the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25%. This marks a notable jump from last week’s 60.7% probability reading. The shift followed President Donald Trump’s announcement that Stephen Miran, a well-known advocate of a dovish monetary cycle, will take up a vacant seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Trump also hinted that Miran could eventually replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, depending on his performance.
Technical Overview
On the daily chart, USD/CHF remains positioned below the resistance line of a descending channel, with dynamic boundaries between 0.8200 and 0.7700. This technical formation continues to limit upward momentum, suggesting that bearish pressure remains in play despite temporary rebounds.
Technical indicators are showing a mild bullish shift. The fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have crossed the signal line from below, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram has moved into positive territory above the zero line. However, the overall picture still reflects a market capped by structural resistance.
- Resistance levels: 0.8150, 0.8320
- Support levels: 0.8000, 0.7870
USD/CHF and Swiss export tariff impactTrading Strategies
Primary Scenario (SELL STOP): Short positions become viable if the price breaks and holds below 0.8000, targeting 0.7870. Stop-loss: 0.8070. This approach aligns with the broader downtrend and tariff-driven headwinds for the Swiss franc.
Alternative Scenario (BUY STOP): Long positions are favored if the price closes above 0.8150, aiming for 0.8320. Stop-loss: 0.8080. Such a move would require a catalyst, such as weaker U.S. economic data or a faster resolution to Swiss-U.S. trade tensions.
Key Levels to Watch
0.7870, 0.8000, 0.8150, 0.8320
Macro and Market Implications
The current trade environment between Switzerland and the United States represents a potential inflection point for USD/CHF. Elevated tariffs threaten to erode export revenues and could pressure Swiss GDP growth, while the franc’s safe-haven appeal remains tempered by the stronger U.S. dollar. For currency traders, this setup offers both short-term tactical opportunities and longer-term trend considerations. Monitoring developments in Fed policy and trade negotiations will be critical for anticipating the next directional move.