USD/CHF Holds Near 0.7966 as Safe-Haven Demand Supports Swiss Franc

Late last week, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) released its Q3 monetary policy review, justifying the decision to keep the interest rate at 0.00%, citing neutral inflation and economic conditions. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the average annual forecast suggests it will remain at 0.2% this year and accelerate to 0.5% in 2026 if borrowing costs remain unchanged. Additionally, the regulator’s economists project GDP growth of 1.5% this year—after a 0.5% increase in Q2—before slowing to 1.0% in 2026, under pressure from U.S. tariffs that have notably impacted the services sector.

The U.S. dollar trades near 98.70 on the USDX, showing a neutral reaction as the fourth week of the U.S. government shutdown continues, disrupting official data releases. However, the inflation report was published, showing a modest 0.3% monthly increase versus the expected 0.4%, and 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.1% forecast.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the pair remains below the descending channel’s resistance line, with dynamic boundaries between 0.8040 and 0.7600.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator diverge downward from the signal line, while the AO histogram forms descending bars within the positive zone.

Support levels: 0.7920, 0.7740.
Resistance levels: 0.8040, 0.8220.

Trading Scenarios and USD/CHF Forecast

Short positions can be considered after a decline and consolidation below 0.7920, with a target at 0.7740. Stop-loss — 0.8000. Duration: 7 days or more.

Long positions can be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 0.8040, targeting 0.8220. Stop-loss — around 0.7970.