The official manufacturing PMI, reflecting data from state-owned enterprises, slipped from 49.8 to 49.0, exiting the expansion zone, while the alternative survey from RatingDog — which covers smaller private firms — declined from 51.2 to 50.6. Investors are assessing the outcome of the U.S.–China bilateral meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Busan, where Washington agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese imports — originally imposed to curb fentanyl inflows — from 20.0% to 10.0%, bringing the overall rate to 47.0%. Trump also announced plans to sign a trade agreement soon and confirmed that the sides had reached a preliminary consensus on rare earth metals previously restricted under Chinese sanctions.
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is holding near 99.60, supported by a continuing government shutdown triggered by a lack of approved federal funding. Last week, Democrats blocked the House-approved bill to reopen government agencies for the thirteenth time, with daily economic losses now estimated at $15 billion. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, below expectations of 49.4, while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved from 52.2 to 52.5.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the instrument remains below the resistance line of a descending channel with dynamic boundaries between 7.1600 and 7.0600.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line from below, and the AO histogram is forming rising bars within the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 7.1450, 7.2000.
Support levels: 7.1000, 7.0500.
Trading Scenarios and USD/CNH Forecast
Long positions may be considered after a breakout and consolidation above 7.1450 with a target of 7.2000 and a stop loss at 7.1300. Implementation horizon: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 7.1000 with a target of 7.0500 and a stop loss at 7.1200.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 7.1450 |
| Take Profit | 7.2000 |
| Stop Loss | 7.1300 |
| Key Levels | 7.0500, 7.1000, 7.1450, 7.2000 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 7.1000 |
| Take Profit | 7.0500 |
| Stop Loss | 7.1200 |
| Key Levels | 7.0500, 7.1000, 7.1450, 7.2000 |
