Early this morning, reports surfaced that US President Donald Trump is ready to sign a new trade pact with Tokyo, which would see tariffs on Japanese imports lowered from the current 25% to 15%. Ishiba welcomed the announcement and stated that he will formally announce his resignation decision after chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa returns from Washington and presents the complete draft of the agreement.
The US dollar continues its negative trend, with the USDX holding near 97.10 and inching closer to annual lows. Market participants are waiting for further commentary from Trump regarding US trade policy, but the reaction to news of a deal with Japan was muted. Analysts note that the agreement’s main provisions—tariffs on rice and automobiles set at 15%—are unlikely to bring substantial benefits to either side, limiting trade flow improvements.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, USD/JPY remains within an uptrend, currently attempting to reach the channel resistance in the 152.00–144.00 range. Technical indicators maintain a moderately bullish outlook, though momentum has slowed. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are positioned above the signal line, and the AO histogram continues to print new bullish bars above the zero line.
- Support: 145.50, 142.00
- Resistance: 148.00, 151.00
Тechnical analysis: USD/JPY weekly chart and trend outlookUSD/JPY Trading Scenarios and Weekly Forecast
Bullish scenario: If USD/JPY breaks above the 148.00 resistance and confirms a move higher, long positions become attractive targeting 151.00, with a stop-loss set at 147.00. This scenario assumes a 7+ day holding period.
Bearish scenario: Should the pair continue lower and close below 145.50, selling positions become relevant targeting 142.00, with a stop-loss at 147.00.
- Timeframe: Weekly
- Buy Stop: Entry at 148.00, Take Profit at 151.00, Stop Loss at 147.00
- Sell Stop: Entry at 145.50, Take Profit at 142.00, Stop Loss at 147.00
- Key levels: 142.00, 145.50, 148.00, 151.00