The export sector saw total shipments rise 4.1% year-over-year to $131.4B for January–June, yet the pace of recovery lags forecasts and has pushed the trade deficit to $49.4B (16.3%). Manufacturing dominates export revenues (94.2%), with agriculture and mining contributing marginally. The export-to-import coverage ratio declined from 74.8% to 72.7%, highlighting limited progress on trade diversification. The government targets boosting high-tech exports to 17% by 2030 through expanded tax incentives and targeted support for sectors like drones, biotech, and semiconductors.

According to TürkStat, consumer price inflation decelerated to 33.52% YoY in July (from 35.05%) and producer price growth slowed to 24.19%. Core inflation dipped to 34.7%—the lowest since December 2021. Key inflation drivers remain food, housing rents, and services. Despite tighter monetary policy, Turkey faces persistent inflationary pressures due to lira weakness, import dependency, and global market uncertainty. Labor market stress is mounting: unemployment edged up to 8.6% in June, the jobless count rose to 3.47M, and the employment level slipped to 32.45M. Notably, 22% of Turks now consider relocation due to worsening economic prospects—up sharply from last autumn.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warns of slower U.S. GDP growth amid tariff hikes and weakening consumer demand, now projecting only 1.1% growth for Q2 and business investment contracting 0.6% YoY. These trends could weigh on household spending and global risk sentiment.

Support and Resistance Levels

USD/TRY is testing 40.6250 (Murray [8/8]). A sustained break above this could accelerate the rally to 41.0156 (Murray [+1/8]) and 41.6062 (Murray [+2/8]). For bears, the critical pivot is 39.8438 (Murray [6/8]), backed by the lower Bollinger Band. A break below targets 39.0625 and 38.6719, but this scenario is less likely given the current uptrend.

Technical indicators confirm bullish momentum: Bollinger Bands are rising, MACD remains positive, and Stochastic is flat near overbought.

  • Resistance: 40.6250, 41.0156, 41.6062
  • Support: 39.8438, 39.0625, 38.6719

    USD/TRY is testing 40.6250 (Murray [8/8])

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Entry above 40.6250, Take Profit at 41.0156 & 41.6062, Stop Loss at 40.3550. Time horizon: 5–7 days.
  • Sell Stop (Alternative): Entry below 39.8438, Take Profit at 39.0625 & 38.6719, Stop Loss at 40.3800.
  • Key Levels: 38.6719, 39.0625, 39.8438, 40.6250, 41.0156, 41.6062