The U.S. economy created only 22.0k new jobs in August, well below the prior 79.0k and the 75.0k forecast. Average hourly earnings slowed from 3.9% to 3.7% y/y, indicating easing inflationary pressure, while adding another 0.3% m/m. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.2% to 4.3%. Job openings remain elevated, but are down from the 12.1 million peak recorded in March 2022 during the post-COVID lockdown recovery. This year the sector has lost momentum amid escalated “trade wars” initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, which has increased uncertainty and dampened hiring. The weak data increased the odds of a 25 bp cut at the September 17 meeting, though a 50 bp move is also possible. For 2025 as a whole, markets expect two—at most three—cuts if the economy continues to flash warning signs. Notably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report followed Trump’s dismissal of Commissioner Erica McEntarfer over alleged political manipulation of monthly employment data. As equities fell, investors rotated into safe havens: gold rose 1.2% to $3,651.00, a new all-time high, weighing on the U.S. dollar.
On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention turns to inflation data. Forecasts point to a rise in the annual CPI from 2.7% to 2.9%, which could temper expectations for swift monetary easing, and to an increase in the monthly print from 0.2% to 0.3%. August data are also expected to show the impact of high “reciprocal” tariffs, many of which took effect this month.
Support and resistance levels
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are attempting to turn upward; the price range is changing only slightly, capping near-term bullish potential. MACD holds a weak buy signal (histogram above the signal line), while Stochastic shows a more confident upmove but is currently testing the 80 mark to the upside, flagging short-term overbought risks.
Resistance levels: 23,737.3, 23,854.0, 23,964.9, 24,100.0.
Support levels: 23,580.7, 23,478.3, 23,300.0, 23,150.0.
Trading scenarios
Long positions can be opened after a confident break above 23,737.3 with a target of 24,100.0. Stop-loss — 23,580.7. Timeframe: 2–3 days.
A rebound from 23,737.3 as resistance followed by a break below 23,580.7 could signal new short positions with a target of 23,300.0. Stop-loss — 23,737.3.
Scenario
Timeframe: Intraday
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 23,737.5
Take Profit: 24,100.0
Stop Loss: 23,580.7
Key levels: 23,150.0, 23,300.0, 23,478.3, 23,580.7, 23,737.3, 23,854.0, 23,964.9, 24,100.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 23,580.5
Take Profit: 23,300.0
Stop Loss: 23,737.3
Key levels: 23,150.0, 23,300.0, 23,478.3, 23,580.7, 23,737.3, 23,854.0, 23,964.9, 24,100.0