The main reason behind the decline across most real assets was a series of statements by US President Donald Trump, which revived risks of global trade reverting to conditions seen in April last year. This scenario may repeat itself after the White House announced the introduction of 10.0% import tariffs starting February 1 on goods from Germany, Norway, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom, with a subsequent increase to 25.0% in June if the EU refuses to agree to the sale of Greenland. Trump considers the island strategically important for US national security and regional control.

According to the administration, the US is taking a firm stance and is prepared to use tariffs as a pressure tool until its objectives are met. In response, European authorities are discussing a package of retaliatory economic measures worth up to €93.0 billion, including restrictions on US companies and the activation of the so-called Anti-Coercion Instrument. This mechanism has never been used before and could limit investments and exports of services.

EU leaders have already described Washington’s actions as “economic blackmail”, warning that they could fundamentally alter transatlantic relations and trigger a trade crisis. Such measures risk escalating into a full-scale tariff war, jeopardizing recently concluded bilateral agreements, increasing financial market volatility, and driving further gains in gold and silver prices.

Any change in business conditions directly impacts industrial companies, which still make up the core of the US equity market. Against the backdrop of rising tariff risks, nearly all companies dependent on imported raw materials are trading in the red today.

Amid these developments, the situation surrounding the US Federal Reserve has temporarily moved into the background. The Fed is due to announce its interest rate decision next week, and it should be recalled that import tariffs were one of the key reasons why the regulator previously refrained from easing monetary policy.

The bond market also reacted to the deteriorating fundamental backdrop, with yields rising sharply. The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased from 4.224% at the end of last week to 4.240%, 20-year yields rose from 4.736% to 4.792%, and 30-year yields climbed from 4.789% to 4.840%.

Top gainers within the index include Super Micro Computer Inc. (+10.94%), Micron Technology Inc. (+7.76%), Moderna Inc. (+6.28%), and GE Vernova LLC (+6.12%).

Leading decliners are Constellation Energy Corp. (–9.82%), Vistra Energy Corp. (–7.54%), Amcor Plc. (–7.29%), and West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (–7.02%).

Support and Resistance Levels

The index is undergoing a corrective move while maintaining a bearish trend on the daily chart, marking a renewed attempt at decline within a triangle pattern bounded by the 7,000.0–6,800.0 range.

Technical indicators are showing an unstable buy signal that has begun to weaken amid the local pullback: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are converging toward the signal line, while the AO histogram remains in positive territory but is forming corrective bars.

Support levels: 6,800.0, 6,530.0.

Resistance levels: 6,970.0, 7,190.0.

Trading Scenarios and S&P 500 Outlook

If the decline continues and the price consolidates below the 6,800.0 support level, short positions may become relevant with a target at 6,530.0. Stop-loss: 6,900.0. Time horizon: 7 days or longer.

If upward movement resumes and the price consolidates above the 6,970.0 resistance level, long positions may be considered with a target at 7,190.0. Stop-loss: 6,860.0.