Brent Oil Forecast: Correction From $110 Puts 102.20 Support in Focus

Trading volumes have risen sharply this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. In addition to continued exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran, investors are concerned about the situation around the Red Sea, where the Houthis have launched a large-scale ground offensive and captured the Yemeni port city of Mocha. The strategically important port strengthens their position near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and may affect shipping through the waterway. Houthi forces are now approximately 60–80 kilometres from the strait, and disruption of this route, which has become increasingly important for Saudi oil exports amid restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, could put significant pressure on global crude supplies. These developments extend the geopolitical risks discussed in the previous Brent forecast.

Meanwhile, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude inventories declined by 0.300 million barrels after falling by 2.600 million barrels in the previous week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), inventories decreased by 0.391 million barrels following the previous decline of 4.450 million barrels, continuing the reduction of accumulated stocks. The figures can be checked in the EIA’s official weekly report. At the beginning of the new month, trading activity remains stable, while volumes are increasing: according to CME Group data, the number of oil futures contracts reached 1.11 million on September 9, while options volume rose to 258.0 thousand contracts, exceeding the August average of 168.0 thousand.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is advancing and remains near the resistance line of a global ascending channel with boundaries of 111.00–87.00.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line and continue to move further away from it, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.

Support levels: 102.20, 94.50.

Resistance levels: 106.80, 113.70.

Brent Crude Oil trading scenarios and forecast

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 106.80, with a target at 113.70. Stop loss: 102.00. Implementation period: seven days or more. Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 102.20, with a target at 94.50. Stop loss: 106.00.