Current dynamics
Most of the data describing the state of the U.S. economy have already been released, and Federal Reserve officials are now waiting for the August inflation report. According to the BLS schedule, the report is due on Friday, September 11, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, well above July’s revised gain of 21,000 and the market forecast of 55,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while the labour-force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. These figures, confirmed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, point to continued labour-market resilience and strengthen the case for tighter financial conditions.
Annual consumer inflation stood at 3.4% in July. If the August reading matches or exceeds that level, the Fed may retain a more hawkish stance at its next meeting. Fed funds futures monitored by CME FedWatch currently reflect an increased probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, although the exact estimate changes with market pricing.
U.S. Treasury yields also remain elevated. On September 4, the one-year yield stood at 4.13%, the 10-year yield at 4.78%, the 20-year yield at 5.25% and the 30-year yield at 5.24%.
Among the session’s strongest performers were KLA Corp. (+7.32%), NRG Energy Inc. (+6.42%), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc. (+6.34%), Micron Technology Inc. (+6.10%) and Western Digital Corp. (+5.86%).
The largest declines were recorded by Lululemon Athletica Inc. (−17.38%), Fair Isaac Corp. (−16.68%), Autodesk Inc. (−8.26%), Adobe Inc. (−6.73%) and Equifax Inc. (−6.37%).
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the instrument is trying to approach the upper boundary of an ascending channel whose current range is approximately 7,400–7,900.
Technical indicators continue to support a bullish signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the slow line, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.
Support levels: 7,630, 7,400.
Resistance levels: 7,760, 7,980.
Trading scenarios
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 7,760, with a target at 7,980. Stop-loss: 7,650. Estimated implementation period: seven days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 7,630, with a target at 7,400. Stop-loss: 7,750.
Main scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 7,760 |
| Take Profit | 7,980 |
| Stop Loss | 7,650 |
| Key levels | 7,400, 7,630, 7,760, 7,980 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
|---|---|
| Entry point | 7,630 |
| Take Profit | 7,400 |
| Stop Loss | 7,750 |
| Key levels | 7,400, 7,630, 7,760, 7,980 |
Author’s view: The ascending channel remains intact, but confirmation above 7,760 is needed to restore bullish momentum. A break below 7,630 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 7,400.
