Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NQ 100 Corrects as Treasury Yields Rise

Recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh about the need to contain inflation have increased expectations of an interest-rate hike, which is a negative signal for risk assets and growth stocks. Labour market data have demonstrated continued resilience, while inflation is expected to accelerate following the latest escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region, which pushed oil prices above 100.00. Analysts expect the August Consumer Price Index to remain at 3.4% year-on-year, while inflation could accelerate further in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest-rate adjustment in September rose to around 72.0% ahead of the CPI release, its highest level since the previous Fed meeting. Similar monetary-policy risks are also affecting the broader US stock market.

The upward trend in the government debt market continues: the yield on one-year Treasury securities stands at 4.289%, well above last week’s 4.138%. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes increased from 4.795% to 4.963%, the yield on long-term 20-year bonds rose from 5.265% to 5.389%, and the yield on 30-year bonds advanced from 5.257% to 5.365%. Current figures can be checked in the US Treasury’s official interest-rate data.

The index’s leading gainers are Apple Inc. (+3.56%), AppLovin Corp. (+3.09%), Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (+2.76%), Autodesk Inc. (+2.42%), and Comcast Corp. (+2.36%).

The largest declines were recorded by Baker Hughes Co. (–6.66%), CoreWeave Inc. (–6.13%), Lam Research Corp. (–5.65%), Intel Corp. (–5.57%), and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (–5.39%).

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is retreating from the resistance line of a local descending channel with boundaries of 30000.0–27400.0.

Technical indicators maintain an unstable buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the slow ones, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming corrective bars and moving further away from the transition level.

Support levels: 28800.0, 27600.0.

Resistance levels: 29500.0, 30700.0.

Nasdaq 100 trading scenarios and forecast

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 28800.0, with a target at 27600.0. Stop loss: 29300.0. Implementation period: seven days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 29500.0, with a target at 30700.0. Stop loss: 29000.0.