Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Consolidates at $4,555 as Iran Deal Optimism Fades and Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 45%

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington is ready to begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program as soon as Tehran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump then indicated that the core principles of a peace agreement have been agreed upon and a memorandum of understanding is nearly initialed — comments that boosted investor optimism, pushed WTI crude oil down more than 5%, and sent the dollar lower by 0.27% to 98.99 on the USDX, which served as the main catalyst for gold's morning gains.

However, Trump immediately and publicly confirmed that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will be maintained until a formal agreement is signed — a direct contradiction of Tehran's stated requirements — while Rubio set a strict two-month deadline for progress on the nuclear issue. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described the situation as simultaneously very close to and very far from a deal, and an adviser to the Supreme Leader warned that Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if US strikes resumed.

The dollar continues to draw support from revised expectations around potential Fed tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 45.1% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike before year-end — a figure that was near zero at the start of May. The key driver of this shift was the April meeting minutes, which reflected officials' concern that inflation could remain elevated for a prolonged period. Against this backdrop, market attention is turning to Thursday's April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, where the headline reading is expected to accelerate to 3.8% year-on-year and the core measure to 3.3%.

According to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, net speculative long positions in gold fell to 159,800 last week from 171,600 the prior week. Real-money buyers still hold large long positions — 124,058 contracts versus 29,670 for bears — though buyers reduced their exposure by 5,012 contracts while sellers added 1,762.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are declining modestly with the price range expanding downward, opening a path for bears toward new lows. The MACD has reversed upward and generated a buy signal with the histogram above the signal line, while the Stochastic is rising and positioned approximately in the middle of its working range.

Resistance levels: 4,600.00, 4,657.61, 4,698.86, 4,764.67.

Support levels: 4,549.78, 4,500.00, 4,453.58, 4,400.00.

XAU/USD Trading Scenarios and Gold Price Forecast

Long positions can be opened after an upside breakout of 4,600.00, targeting 4,698.86, with a stop-loss at 4,549.78. Time horizon: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after a downside break of 4,500.00, targeting 4,400.00, with a stop-loss at 4,549.78.