After active growth, the currency began to fall, as almost immediately after Iran and the United States signed a memorandum on the cessation of hostilities, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) once again attacked Lebanese territory. According to experts, the postponement of the official signing of the document in Switzerland will have almost no impact on the situation, since the framework agreement has already been concluded, and under its terms, the parties have 60 days to achieve peace. Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic may respond to Tel Aviv’s actions, which could worsen the further course of negotiations.
Meanwhile, quotes are supported by the firm stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which announced its intention to prevent a significant rise in prices. Earlier, officials predictably kept the interest rate in the 3.50–3.75% range and updated the “dot plot,” which markets perceived as a hawkish signal: the accompanying statement completely removed wording implying further monetary policy easing. The median projection for borrowing costs at the end of 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, while half of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee expect at least one increase in borrowing costs.
Eurozone
The euro is strengthening against the yen but weakening against the U.S. dollar and the pound. The neutral dynamics are largely linked to expectations of monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank as early as next month: Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, noted that if officials see new signs of inflation spreading further beyond the energy sector, an interest rate increase to 2.50% is likely.
According to the hawkish policymaker, who supported an increase in borrowing costs at the previous meeting, the new U.S.-Iran agreement caused a sharp drop in oil prices, easing fears of a prolonged inflation shock. However, there is no certainty about how strong and long-lasting this agreement will be. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the hawkish course remains justified even under a softer economic scenario, and the regulator may ignore temporary fuel costs if they do not have a long-term impact on the consumer price index.
United Kingdom
The pound is strengthening against the euro, the U.S. dollar, and the yen. The positive dynamics are developing amid strong retail sales data: in May, retail sales adjusted from –1.0% to 1.2%, which analysts believe was influenced by promotions and hot weather, while over the three months to May 2026, the volume of purchased goods increased by 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England decided to keep the interest rate at 3.75% by seven votes out of nine, while officials noted that they are ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation accelerates. The May consumer price index remained at a 13-month low of 2.8% year-on-year, below both the analysts’ consensus forecast, which expected acceleration to 3.0%, and the bank’s own estimates. On a monthly basis, the indicator stood at 0.2%, while the core figure, excluding volatile food and energy components, accelerated to 2.6% from 2.5%. The services sector figure, which officials monitor particularly closely as an indicator of persistent price pressure, rose from 3.2% to 3.7%
Japan
The yen is strengthening against the U.S. dollar but declining against the pound and the euro.
Quotes retreated from yearly highs, remaining above the 161.00 mark, but the Bank of Japan still maintains a wait-and-see stance, which experts explain by the possibility that the regulator has planned several monetary policy tightenings before the end of the year. This version is also supported by leading economists in the country: for example, former Policy Board member Makoto Sakurai expects two more interest rate hikes.
According to him, officials justified their decision by the need to prevent the risk of the core consumer price index exceeding the 2.0% target, whereas previously the bank had been confident that this would not happen. Sakurai believes that the regulator has changed its approach, and its main focus has shifted to fighting inflation, which requires a transition to hawkish rhetoric.
Australia
The Australian dollar is strengthening against the yen, the U.S. dollar, and the euro but declining against the pound. Quotes are under pressure from macroeconomic statistics: total operating profit in industry decreased by 1.9%, or 12.2 billion Australian dollars, with the largest decline recorded in the mining sector, down 19.1%, or 32.9 billion Australian dollars. Excluding this sector, profits in other industries increased by 4.4%, or 20.6 billion Australian dollars.
The healthcare and social assistance indicator accelerated by 15.9%, while the construction market rose by 9.0%. The strongest growth was recorded in real estate rental, which increased by 47.6%, or 20.2 billion Australian dollars.
Oil
Oil quotes are correcting at 79.00 under pressure from the improving situation in the Middle East, as Iran and the United States announced that they had reached a framework agreement to end the conflict. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance noted that the 60-day period for discussing further points of the final memorandum starts on June 18.
According to the document, Tehran pledged not to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz for two months. Satellite data confirms that movement through the waters has already resumed: the LNG carrier Mraikh, traveling from Qatar to Pakistan, the oil tanker Tong Lin Wan, heading to Singapore, and the first supertanker since the start of the conflict, Tenzan, carrying “black gold” to Asia, have already crossed the area.
It is reported that vessels are passing through Iranian territorial waters along a strictly defined route, as some areas are still mined.
