The UK real estate sector is undergoing significant change after the government’s April revision of stamp duty rules. The threshold for primary residences now stands at £300,000 (down from £425,000), while secondary homes are taxed from £125,000 (previously £250,000). This expansion of the tax net covers virtually the entire housing market, raising concerns among analysts about a potential drop in demand for high-end and investment properties. Halifax Bank’s house price index echoed this sentiment, flattening to 0.0% month-on-month and slowing to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6%. In the long term, industry experts warn of stagnation in the prime real estate sector and a sharp decline in its investment appeal.
The US dollar index (USDX) is hovering near 96.90, weighed down by the absence of clear signals on US trade policy. President Donald Trump continues to signal readiness for sweeping tariff increases on countries yet to reach bespoke agreements with Washington by the end of the sanctions moratorium on July 9. While the UK, China, and Vietnam have reached provisional consensus, talks with other major economies are still ongoing. The remainder risk facing tariffs of 50% or more. Additionally, Trump has suggested a re-examination of the US tax regime regarding BRICS nations, citing potential threats to America’s trade independence.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels for GBP/USD
On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains above the support line of the rising channel (dynamic range: 1.3980–1.3400). Technical momentum is fading as fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator stay above the signal line, but the Awesome Oscillator prints smaller, corrective bars in positive territory.
- Resistance levels: 1.3740, 1.3980
- Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3170
Trading Scenarios
Bullish setup: Go long after a daily close above 1.3740, targeting 1.3980. Stop-loss: 1.3630.
Bearish setup: Consider shorts if the pair breaks and closes below 1.3500, aiming for 1.3170 with a stop-loss at 1.3600.
- Timeframe: Weekly
- Buy stop: Entry 1.3740 | Take Profit 1.3980 | Stop Loss 1.3630
- Sell stop: Entry 1.3500 | Take Profit 1.3170 | Stop Loss 1.3600
- Key levels: 1.3170, 1.3500, 1.3740, 1.3980
Stamp duty reforms pressure UK prime property