One of the drivers behind the rally is renewed attention to the Subnet ecosystem. According to a recent report by Yuma, a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, the economic significance of Bittensor’s subnetworks is steadily increasing.
The combined market capitalization of Subnet tokens has already reached about 27% of the market cap of the native TAO token, marking a record level. Currently, more than 120 Subnets are active within the network, supporting real-world applications ranging from code generation and video analysis to providing GPU computing power.
An additional catalyst was the December halving, which reduced daily emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. As a result, real economic activity within the network is becoming increasingly important for the token’s valuation.
Technical recovery gains momentum
The chart structure also shows strengthening momentum. Over the last 24 hours, TAO traded in a range between $180 and $199. At the time of analysis, the price is around $196, roughly $19 higher than the previous day’s level.
For comparison, the token’s all-time high stands at $757.6, meaning that even after the recent recovery the asset is still trading significantly below earlier valuation levels. The market capitalization is currently about $1.88 billion.
After forming a local bottom at $174.7, the price started building a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which is often interpreted as a signal of a short-term trend reversal.
A particularly important signal was the reclaiming of the EMA-20, currently located around $184. As long as TAO holds above this level, the short-term technical structure remains constructive.
Key levels and buyer control
The $184 area now acts as the first support zone. Below that, the region around $177 becomes the next important level, which previously served as a stable base.
On the upside, the most immediate obstacle is the recent high at $199.8. A clear breakout above this level could trigger another wave of buying.
Technical indicators also support this scenario:
- RSI is around 67, indicating strong demand without entering extreme overbought territory;
- Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting increasing volatility;
- Market activity and trading momentum are strengthening.
The price movement appears impulsive but remains relatively controlled for now.
Critical zone below $200
The key decision zone currently sits just below the $200 level, which represents both a psychological and technical barrier.
If the price manages to secure a sustained breakout above $199.8, the recovery could accelerate toward the $220–$260 range.
However, if the breakout fails and the price falls below $177, the bullish structure would weaken. In that case, a correction toward the $150–$170 range becomes more likely.
TAO price scenarios
Based on the scenarios presented in the chart, the market currently considers three possible developments:
- Neutral scenario (~50% probability) — consolidation within the $184–$199 range while RSI stabilizes and the price holds above the EMA-20.
- Bullish scenario (~30% probability) — a breakout above $199.8 with rising volume, potentially driving the price toward $200–$260.
- Bearish scenario (~20% probability) — a drop below $177, opening the path for a correction toward $150–$170.
Overall, the coming days could be decisive for Bittensor. A successful breakout above $200 may trigger a new growth phase, while a failed attempt could lead to a short-term correction.
