The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation is estimated at approximately $2.7 trillion. Bitcoin dominance stands within the 58.0%–60.0% range, depending on the data provider. Institutional demand remains firm: according to Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.1264 billion over the four sessions from August 24 to August 27, while Ethereum ETFs received $713.6 million.
Part of the recent rally followed the US Treasury’s decision to raise the maximum size of long-end liquidity-support buybacks from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion per operation. The change takes effect on September 9 and followed a rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.337%, its highest level in 19 years.
However, the programme is not quantitative easing and does not create new central-bank liquidity. No coordinated bond-purchase plan involving the Federal Reserve has been announced. Investors will therefore focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for guidance on interest rates, inflation and the central bank’s balance sheet. A hawkish message could strengthen the Dollar and pressure cryptocurrencies, while a more restrained tone may preserve the current risk appetite.
The shift towards economic pressure on Iran initially reduced concerns about an immediate escalation of military action. Washington has threatened secondary sanctions covering digital assets, gold, technology, aviation and shipping, although the new penalties have not yet been imposed. At the same time, direct US–Iran talks remain suspended and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still restricted, meaning geopolitical risk has not disappeared.
Market sentiment has nevertheless improved. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached 73, placing it firmly in the “Greed” zone. Standard Chartered continues to forecast Bitcoin at 100,000.00 by the end of 2026, but Geoff Kendrick believes the estimate may now be too conservative. If ETF demand persists, BTC could potentially retest its 126,000.00 record, as discussed in our latest Bitcoin price forecast.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has also advised investors to reduce their exposure to government bonds, allocate around 10.0%–15.0% of a portfolio to gold and hold a smaller position in Bitcoin. He believes the United States could face a debt crisis within roughly three years, although the timing remains highly uncertain.
Regulation remains another source of risk. The Senate postponed consideration of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September, while lawmakers continue to negotiate ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions. The bill remains active, but there is no guarantee that it will quickly reach a final vote. A detailed breakdown is available in our article on the CLARITY Act delay.
