Preliminary July data on durable goods orders showed a decline for the second month in a row, down 2.8% versus an expected 3.8%. However, core orders increased by 1.1%, compared with a forecast of 0.2%. Overall, consumer activity and confidence in economic prospects remain stable, providing the Federal Reserve with an additional argument to keep the interest rate at the current level. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to pressure the regulator. Having failed to influence it directly, he has moved toward legal action against its board members. Earlier, the administration discussed the possibility of dismissing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing overspending on the renovation of the central office. Today, the president announced the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook on charges of false mortgage statements. The decision may be challenged in federal courts, possibly reaching the Supreme Court. The conflict is deepening and is already affecting U.S. bond yields. Most analysts believe Trump may succeed in pushing the Fed toward some degree of monetary easing in the near term.
Eurozone
The euro is gaining against the pound and the U.S. dollar but shows mixed dynamics against the yen.
Investors are focused on the French government crisis, which could negatively impact the eurozone economy. Prime Minister François Bayrou is preparing next year’s budget with a plan to cut the deficit (5.8% of GDP in 2024) by reducing spending by about 44 billion euros, primarily through limits on social benefits and pensions, alongside higher taxes. The proposals faced resistance from three major opposition parties, which now plan to initiate a no-confidence vote. The political instability in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, has already pressured French stocks and could weigh on the euro further.
United Kingdom
The pound is losing against the euro, strengthening versus the U.S. dollar, and trading mixed against the yen.
August data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that retail prices rose from 0.7% to 0.9%, in line with forecasts and marking the fastest increase since March last year. Food prices recorded the highest jump, rising 4.2%. Bank of England officials had previously warned that higher food prices could trigger wage indexation and add inflationary pressure. The data reinforces expectations that the interest rate will remain unchanged through the end of the year.
Japan
The yen is strengthening against the U.S. dollar, while showing mixed results against the euro and the pound.
The Bank of Japan reported that the core consumer price index fell from 2.3% to 2.0% in July, against expectations of 2.4%, but remains at the target level. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reaffirmed concerns over the yen’s recent appreciation following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Authorities maintain that the U.S. and Japanese currencies should move in a stable manner rather than react sharply to short-term market fluctuations.
Australia
The Australian dollar is gaining against the yen, weakening versus the euro and the pound, and trading mixed against the U.S. dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its latest meeting, confirming a rate cut to 3.60% due to inflation approaching the midpoint of the 2.0–3.0% target range. Officials noted that maintaining full employment alongside stable inflation may require further easing next year, depending on incoming economic data. Analysts expect the next cut to come in November, with rates stabilizing around 3.10–2.85% in 2026.
Oil
Crude oil prices are correcting downward after reports that damage to Russian refineries from drone attacks was less significant than initially thought. According to Reuters, Russia plans to increase oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, boosting overall supply.
Later today at 22:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly report, expected to show a 1.7 million-barrel decline in U.S. stockpiles. If confirmed, this could support a renewed upward move in oil prices.