AUD/USD Falls as RBA Minutes Highlight Inflation Concerns

The latest report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists suggests that despite several possible scenarios, the next rate adjustment from 3.60% is still expected in early 2026. Recent months have shown some improvement in private-sector activity and consumer sentiment. However, inflation remains a concern: the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.0% year-over-year and 2.8% month-over-month in August, while wage growth slowed despite ongoing global risks. According to the latest CommBank View report, the national economy is gradually recovering — GDP reached 1.8% and is forecast to hit 2.2% by the end of 2026 — though Australians remain cautious in spending. Earlier, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said headline inflation, which stood at 2.1% last quarter, could rise to 3.1% by mid-next year as energy subsidies expire, but underlying inflation is expected to stay near 2.6% for several years.

Investors are now focused on September data from the National Australia Bank: the business confidence index rose from 4.0 to 7.0 points, while business conditions improved from 7.0 to 8.0 points. On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), labor market data for September will be released. Analysts expect employment to grow by 17,000 after a decline of 5,400 in the previous month, while unemployment is projected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady downward trend, with the range widening but lagging behind the latest wave of bearish pressure. MACD is falling, maintaining a strong sell signal as the histogram stays below the signal line. The Stochastic indicator mirrors this movement but is near oversold levels, suggesting a short-term risk of a technical rebound for the Australian dollar.

Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6572, 0.6600.

Support levels: 0.6462, 0.6438, 0.6406, 0.6373.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Outlook

Short positions can be opened after a confident breakout below 0.6462 with a target at 0.6373 and a stop loss at 0.6500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

A rebound from 0.6462 followed by a breakout above 0.6500 may serve as a signal for long positions targeting 0.6600, with a stop loss at 0.6462.