EUR/USD Technical Forecast — Euro Rises as Fed Signals Further Easing

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the U.S. labor market continues to cool due to fewer new jobs, though overall demand in the economy remains strong, providing resilience. Under these conditions, the central bank must continue balancing between tightening too aggressively and easing too slowly. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that current labor market trends justify further rate cuts, especially amid persistent economic uncertainty. A similar stance came from Fed Board member Steven Miran, who said that growing U.S.–China trade tensions pose a significant downside risk to economic prospects, reinforcing the need for a dovish policy tone.

These views align with the latest Beige Book report, which shows that overall economic activity and labor market conditions remain stable, but signs of weakness have appeared — including more layoffs and reduced household spending. This increases the likelihood that the Fed could deliver two additional rate cuts before year-end.

The dollar also faces pressure from renewed U.S.–China trade frictions. Analysts believe the 100% tariffs on Chinese imports will be implemented by the White House only if the upcoming bilateral meeting between the two countries’ leaders at the end of the month fails to produce positive results.

Against this backdrop, the euro appears more attractive for investors. The eurozone economy, supported by the European Central Bank’s low interest rates, has stabilized, and inflation remains close to the 2.0% target despite early signs of accelerating price growth.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is approaching the middle Bollinger Band. A breakout above it and 1.1719 (Murray level [8/8]) would extend the rally toward 1.1920 (yearly highs) and 1.1963 (Murray level [+2/8]). Conversely, a renewed move below 1.1597 (Murray level [7/8]) could trigger a correction toward 1.1475 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1.1353 (Murray level [5/8]).

Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, Stochastic points higher, while MACD remains stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1719, 1.1920, 1.1963.

Support levels: 1.1597, 1.1475, 1.1353.

Trading Scenarios and EUR/USD Forecast

Long positions may be considered above 1.1719 with targets at 1.1920 and 1.1963, and a stop-loss at 1.1630. Expected duration: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.1597 with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1353, and a stop-loss at 1.1690.