Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on December data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which reflects business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing and supply managers across major industries. The index is expected to edge up from 48.2 to 48.3 points, although it remains below autumn levels. Against this backdrop, the composite indicator may show a modest rebound, providing a positive signal for traders who expect the Federal Reserve to continue its dovish cycle at the January 29 meeting.
Eurozone
The euro is weakening against the yen, the U.S. dollar, and the British pound.
Quotes remain under pressure following the latest S&P Global business activity report, which showed a decline in manufacturing PMI from 49.6 to 48.8 points, marking a March low. The index has yet to enter expansion territory, indicating prolonged sector stagnation and weighing on overall macroeconomic data. The current decline is particularly concerning for investors because the euro is losing ground not only against the dollar but also against other major counterparts such as the Swiss franc and the pound, increasing the risk of a prolonged bearish trend.
United Kingdom
The pound is weakening against the yen but showing positive momentum versus the euro and the U.S. dollar.
Quotes are attempting to resume an upward trajectory, supported by macroeconomic data. Consumer credit issued by the Bank of England rose to £2.077 billion, up from £1.713 billion in October, while mortgage lending increased to £4.49 billion from £4.16 billion previously. These figures suggest relative financial resilience among households and sustained demand for borrowing despite tight monetary conditions. Net lending to individuals also increased notably, reaching £6.6 billion for the first time since September, compared with £5.4 billion a month earlier, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the dovish cycle at next month’s meeting.
Japan
The yen is strengthening against the euro, the pound, and the U.S. dollar.
At the end of last week, prices again approached annual lows, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan and prompting the regulator to adopt more hawkish rhetoric in an effort to curb the yen’s weakness. Today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates from the current level of 0.75%, provided that economic and price indicators evolve in line with preliminary forecasts. These comments are intended to signal that further policy tightening is being considered as part of a strategy to establish a sustainable inflation cycle and income growth, rather than as a short-term response to exchange rate fluctuations.
Australia
The Australian dollar is weakening against the pound and the yen but showing gains versus the euro and the U.S. dollar.
Tomorrow at 00:00 (GMT+2), Australia will publish its services sector PMI, calculated from a survey of more than 300 private-sector executives. Analysts expect the index to decline from 52.8 to 51.0 points in December. This suggests a slowdown in sector expansion amid current financial conditions and weaker domestic demand, which could provide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with additional justification for caution regarding further policy tightening and place moderate short-term pressure on the national currency.
Oil
Oil prices are trading with heightened volatility today but have failed to move decisively away from the key level of 61.00.
On Saturday, U.S. armed forces carried out a series of airstrikes on military and civilian targets in Venezuela. Reports later emerged of the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were subsequently transferred to a detention facility in Brooklyn, where charges related to narco-terrorism and weapons possession may be filed as early as today. While the escalation in political tensions initially shifted investor sentiment, it did not trigger a surge in trading activity. One reason may be that the U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil exports remains in place, preventing tankers from leaving the country’s ports. At the same time, following Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ decided to maintain current crude production levels for February and March, despite internal disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Previously, the cartel had emphasized its readiness to act flexibly, including partially or fully reinstating production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day or reapplying the full 2.2 million barrels per day already returned to the market.
