In the absence of major economic releases, price movements are driven mainly by technical factors, as investor activity remains subdued amid the New Year holidays. At 21:00 (GMT+2), the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy meeting of the year will be released. Traders will be looking for signals on the regulator’s next steps, which currently remain highly uncertain.

On the one hand, the rise in unemployment to 4.6% in November, together with a slowdown in inflation to 2.7%, shifts the balance of economic risks toward cooling labor market conditions, implying further rate cuts. On the other hand, a strong rebound in GDP growth (4.3% in the third quarter) and cautious rhetoric from policymakers leave room for rates to remain unchanged in the short term. Additional support for expectations of a softer policy path comes from the upcoming leadership change at the Fed: Jerome Powell’s four-year term ends in May, and he is likely to be replaced by Kevin Hassett, who is viewed as closer to the Republican administration and expected to pursue rate cuts even amid elevated inflation risks.

Eurozone

The euro weakens against the yen and shows mixed performance against both the pound and the US dollar.

With no major macroeconomic releases, euro movements are largely driven by external factors. Low investor activity may persist through the end of the week, when December manufacturing PMI data are released. The eurozone-wide index is expected to decline from 49.6 to 49.2 points, while Germany’s reading is forecast to remain unchanged at 47.7. Analysts believe the slowdown will continue, pressured by White House trade policy. Nevertheless, this data is unlikely to push the European Central Bank back toward a more dovish stance in the near term.

United Kingdom

The pound strengthens against the US dollar and shows mixed dynamics versus the euro and the yen.

Market participants focused today on a report from Goldman Sachs analysts, who suggested that weakening labor market conditions could lead to a slowdown in inflation in the coming months. As a result, the Bank of England may cut interest rates three times in 2026, bringing the terminal rate down to 3.0%.

Japan

The yen strengthens against the US dollar and the euro, while showing mixed movement versus the pound.

Investors are preparing for New Year celebrations, and low trading volumes are expected to persist until early next week, when final December business activity data are released. Manufacturing indicators are likely to continue declining, but this may be offset by expansion in the services sector, helping the overall economy remain balanced. Market participants are also assessing potential government actions to support the yen, and currency interventions early in the new year cannot be ruled out.

Australia

The Australian dollar modestly strengthens against its major peers—the euro, pound, US dollar, and yen.

In the absence of key economic releases, price movements are driven mainly by external factors. On Friday at 00:00 (GMT+2), December business activity data will be published, with the index expected to remain at 52.2 points. This would confirm the resilience of the manufacturing sector despite global trade uncertainty and increase the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its current monetary policy stance for an extended period.

Oil

Oil prices continue to rise amid escalating tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which could complicate or even derail progress toward a potential peace agreement.

Reports emerged yesterday of a drone attack on one of the residences of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, the Kremlin has indicated it will remain engaged in diplomatic efforts. However, analysts warn that the situation may deteriorate significantly, reducing the likelihood of sanctions being lifted on Russia’s energy sector. Today, market participants will also monitor the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Last week, inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, and a similar outcome could put additional pressure on oil prices.