Analysts forecast that the October gross domestic product (GDP) will strengthen from –0.1% to 0.1% month-over-month and from 1.1% to 1.4% year-over-year. Such results support the likelihood that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.00%. Meanwhile, housing market metrics showed notable expansion in Q3: total residential mortgage lending increased 0.9% QoQ to GBP 1.733 trillion and 2.9% YoY, gross mortgage lending rose 36.9% to GBP 80.4 billion (the highest since late 2020) and 22.7% YoY, and new mortgage commitments jumped 1.6% to GBP 79.4 billion (a peak since Q3 2022) and 20.3% YoY.
The US dollar is attempting to resume growth after a prolonged decline, currently trading at 98.80 on the USDX. Today at 21:00 (GMT+2), traders will focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 87.6% probability that officials will approve a third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe this December cut will be followed by a pause, with two additional reductions expected next year — in March and September. They argue the Fed will wait for updated macroeconomic data following the end of the record-long government shutdown, balancing between inflation control and a cooling labor market.
Internal disagreement persists within the Fed, while investors await the nomination of a successor to Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The leading candidate is currently White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, whose support for a dovish policy aligned with President Donald Trump’s view is raising market concerns over a possible acceleration of consumer price growth.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the pair is correcting but remains well above the support line of the descending channel with dynamic boundaries between 1.3460–1.2950.
Technical indicators issue a buy signal: the Alligator’s fast EMAs are widening upward from the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming rising bars in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3640.
Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3000.
GBP/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast
Long positions may be opened after a breakout and price consolidation above 1.3390, targeting 1.3640. Stop-loss: 1.3320. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation below 1.3210, targeting 1.3000. Stop-loss: 1.3300.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3390 |
| Take Profit | 1.3640 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3320 |
| Key Levels | 1.3000, 1.3210, 1.3390, 1.3640 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3210 |
| Take Profit | 1.3000 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3300 |
| Key Levels | 1.3000, 1.3210, 1.3390, 1.3640 |