According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) report covering the period from August 31 to October 4, total retail sales rose from 2.0% to 2.3% year-over-year. Food sales increased from 2.3% in September last year to 4.3%, while non-food sales slowed from 1.7% to 0.7% but remained in the green zone. Online non-food sales decreased from 3.4% to 1.0%, though the overall share of online purchases grew from 37.2% to 37.6%, above the 12-month average of 37.0%. BRC analysts noted that the results fell short of expectations as households delayed major purchases until the end-of-year discount period. Meanwhile, investors are assessing comments from Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene. In September, she voted with the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the base rate at 4.00%, whereas in August she opposed a 25-basis-point cut that passed by a narrow 5–4 vote. Her recent statements now make a policy adjustment at the next meeting more likely.

The U.S. dollar is regaining ground, trading around 98.80 on the USDX index. Selling pressure has eased after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric toward China and expressed hope for a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. This week, traders are awaiting comments from several Federal Reserve officials — particularly Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) conference at 18:20 (GMT+2) today.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading slightly above the upper boundary of the descending channel, which ranges dynamically between 1.3620 and 1.3050.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram forms corrective bars in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3430, 1.3660.

Support levels: 1.3260, 1.3010.

GBP/USD chart

Trading Scenarios and GBP/USD Outlook

Short positions may be opened after a confirmed decline and consolidation below 1.3260, targeting 1.3010, with a stop loss at 1.3350. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 1.3430, targeting 1.3660, with a stop loss at 1.3350.

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3260
Take Profit 1.3010
Stop Loss 1.3350
Key Levels 1.3010, 1.3260, 1.3430, 1.3660

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3430
Take Profit 1.3660
Stop Loss 1.3350
Key Levels 1.3010, 1.3260, 1.3430, 1.3660