Investors and forex traders are focused on the reopening of the US government. Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a bill 222–209 to restore federal funding through the end of January 2026. Democrats temporarily agreed to drop their push to extend ACA tax credits, while Republicans committed to holding a vote on the issue in December. President Donald Trump signed the bill, and markets reacted positively.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials also attracted attention. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he supports keeping rates unchanged “until there is clear evidence” that inflation is returning to the 2.0% target. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that with no signs of a significant labor-market deterioration, maintaining the current rate is appropriate. Interestingly, Collins had twice voted for easing earlier this year but has now taken a more cautious stance. A pause in December’s dovish cycle remains likely, though incoming data—now that the government has reopened—will be critical.

Eurozone

The euro is strengthening against the US dollar and the yen but weakening against the pound.

Today’s industrial production data for September showed only a 0.2% monthly rise versus the 0.7% forecast, and 1.2% annually versus expectations of 2.1%. The sector remains pressured by US tariffs but is slowly adapting by redirecting trade flows toward Asia. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned yesterday that inflation is unlikely to fall below the 2.0% target next year, citing geopolitical risks, higher trade costs, disruptions in supply chains—especially rare-earth metals—and persistent food inflation coupled with strong wage growth.

United Kingdom

The British pound is gaining against its major peers — the euro, the yen, and the US dollar.

The market is focused on GDP data: the UK economy grew 0.1% in Q3 versus 0.3% previously and 0.2% expected, while annual growth slowed from 1.4% to 1.3%. September data showed a monthly decline of –0.1% and annual growth dropping from 1.2% to 1.1%. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the downturn spans all major sectors, with the automotive industry hit hardest. There are concerns that the upcoming November 26 national budget — which includes tax increases — could further weaken consumer spending. Industrial production disappointed as well: output fell 2.0% in September versus expectations of –0.5%, and 2.5% annually versus the forecast –1.2%.

Japan

The yen is weakening against the euro and the pound, while showing mixed dynamics against the US dollar.

October wholesale inflation data showed corporate goods prices slowing from 0.5% to 0.4% month-over-month and from 2.8% to 2.7% year-over-year — still well above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, which could pressure the BoJ toward another rate hike. Analysts remain cautious, however, due to political pressure from new prime minister Sanae Takaichi, who opposes tightening. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the bank aims to maintain moderate inflation supported by wage growth and economic recovery.

Australia

The Australian dollar is rising against the yen and the US dollar, while showing mixed performance against the euro and the pound.

Investors are focused on October labor-market figures: unemployment fell from 4.5% to a four-year low of 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected), total employment rose by 42.2K (vs. 20K expected), and full-time employment jumped by 55.3K. The strong labor data increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates unchanged for an extended period. Analysts expect no policy changes until early next year, with only a 25% probability of a rate move in May.

Oil

Oil prices are rising on expectations that the end of the record US government shutdown will support economic recovery and higher energy demand.

However, the upside is limited by several factors. OPEC reported yesterday that global oil supply is expected to match demand next year due to higher production under the OPEC+ agreement, reversing earlier projections of a deficit.

API weekly inventory data showed a 1.300M-barrel increase versus the 1.700M forecast. Similar data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released today at 19:00 (GMT+2). If inventories rise by the expected 1.000M barrels, current price momentum may slow.