Meanwhile, during a meeting with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Bank of Japan should adjust borrowing costs as soon as possible to stabilize the national currency. The United States’ interest in this issue is clear — narrowing the interest rate gap between the two economies would benefit American exporters, strengthening the dollar’s competitiveness against the yen.
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) trades around 98.30 amid the third week of a government shutdown. According to Bessent, each day of the shutdown costs the American economy roughly $15 billion, and the ongoing disruption could lead to mass layoffs of public employees, whose total number is about 1.9 million. Currently, these workers are on unpaid leave, and the longer the situation persists, the greater the likelihood that many will seek other employment, which could increase the unemployment rate.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the pair remains within an upward trend channel between 154.00 and 146.30, approaching the upper resistance line.
Technical indicators maintain a bullish outlook: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator stay above the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) continues forming green bars in positive territory.
Resistance levels: 152.10, 155.80.
Support levels: 149.80, 146.30.
Trading Scenarios and USD/JPY Forecast
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above 152.10, targeting 155.80. Stop-loss at 151.00. Estimated duration: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be considered after a confident move below 149.80, with a target at 146.30. Stop-loss at 151.50.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 152.10 |
| Take Profit | 155.80 |
| Stop Loss | 151.00 |
| Key Levels | 146.30, 149.80, 152.10, 155.80 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 149.80 |
| Take Profit | 146.30 |
| Stop Loss | 151.50 |
| Key Levels | 146.30, 149.80, 152.10, 155.80 |