Forecasts suggest that the U.S. core CPI will remain at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, while the broader index is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% m/m and from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y. Later today, at 22:00 (GMT+2), attention will shift to the U.S. federal budget report, where the deficit is projected to narrow slightly from –$291 billion to –$281 billion. Yesterday’s PPI release showed the core rate slowing from 3.4% to 2.8% y/y (vs. 3.5% forecast), while the headline index eased from 3.1% to 2.6% (vs. 3.3%). On a monthly basis, PPI dropped by 0.1% after a 0.7% gain in July (0.3% expected).

Meanwhile, Turkey’s CPI moderated from 33.52% to 32.95% y/y in August, with the monthly rate rising to 3.23%. Authorities expect inflation to decline to 28.50% by year-end, 16.00% in 2026, 9.00% in 2027, and 8.00% in 2028. The Ministry of Finance also forecasts further lira depreciation against the dollar, with USD/TRY projected at 46.60 in 2026, 50.71 in 2027, and 53.76 in 2028. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz noted unemployment is expected at 8.5% in 2025, 8.4% in 2026, and 8.2% in 2027. Meanwhile, ING Group upgraded its GDP growth outlook from 2.7% to 3.3% in 2025 and from 3.5% to 4.0% in 2026. Strong domestic demand remains the key growth driver, helping offset the impact of high inflation. Analysts highlight that the current high-rate policy will eventually strengthen the lira in real terms, though the effect will take time to materialize.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are flattening with a narrowing price range, signaling mixed short-term dynamics. MACD is edging lower, maintaining a weak sell signal (histogram below the signal line). Stochastic remains near overbought territory, indicating short-term risks of dollar overextension.

  • Resistance levels: 41.3000, 41.4000, 41.5000, 41.6000

  • Support levels: 41.2097, 41.0999, 41.0000, 40.8995

USD/TRY

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Long positions above 41.3000 with targets at 41.5000. Stop-loss: 41.2097. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • Sell Stop: Short positions below 41.2097 with targets at 41.0000. Stop-loss: 41.3000.

Scenario (Intraday)

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 41.3000

  • Take Profit: 41.5000

  • Stop Loss: 41.2097

  • Key Levels: 40.8995, 41.0000, 41.0999, 41.2097, 41.3000, 41.4000, 41.5000, 41.6000

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 41.2095

  • Take Profit: 41.0000

  • Stop Loss: 41.3000

  • Key Levels: 40.8995, 41.0000, 41.0999, 41.2097, 41.3000, 41.4000, 41.5000, 41.6000