Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered, but the transportation of hydrocarbons remains exposed to elevated security risks, keeping freight and war-risk insurance costs high and supporting oil prices above the 100.00 mark. According to Iranian media, several powerful explosions were reported in the southern part of the strait, where tankers using routes not authorised by Tehran may have struck naval mines. However, the reports have not been independently confirmed, and no details about the vessels involved or the extent of possible damage have been released. In addition, Yemen's Houthi forces continue to attack targets in Saudi Arabia, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, where a Saudia Airlines aircraft was severely damaged following a missile attack. Despite these developments, oil prices have corrected slightly after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not launch new strikes against Iran before the November midterm elections, citing progress in diplomatic discussions.
Meanwhile, the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) report on US crude oil inventories showed a decline of 2.090 million barrels, following an increase of 1.019 million barrels in the previous week. Similar data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a decrease of 3.186 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 0.922 million barrels. Total commercial crude inventories fell to approximately 424.1 million barrels, reflecting stronger refinery activity and higher exports. The drawdown provides additional support for oil prices, although market dynamics remain largely dependent on geopolitical developments and the stability of Middle Eastern supplies. Trading activity remains elevated as investors assess the risks to shipping routes and energy infrastructure.
As discussed in our previous Brent Crude Oil forecast, the recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports has helped ease immediate supply concerns, but high transportation costs and persistent geopolitical risks continue to support the market.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving higher, remaining near the resistance line of the global ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 112.00–94.50.
Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the slow ones and have begun moving further away from them, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.
Support levels: 99.20, 92.30.
Resistance levels: 104.40, 111.80.
Brent Crude Oil trading scenarios and price forecast
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 104.40, with a target at 111.80. Stop-loss — 101.00. Estimated implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 99.20, with a target at 92.30. Stop-loss — 103.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 104.40 |
| Take Profit | 111.80 |
| Stop Loss | 101.00 |
| Key levels | 92.30, 99.20, 104.40, 111.80 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 99.20 |
| Take Profit | 92.30 |
| Stop Loss | 103.00 |
| Key levels | 92.30, 99.20, 104.40, 111.80 |
