XAU/USD Holds Near $4,655 as Gold Traders Watch Middle East Escalation

At the beginning of the week, the US-Iran confrontation entered a new phase of escalation: yesterday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that a 45-day truce could give opponents an opportunity to regroup and prepare new attacks. According to him, any steps in this direction should not be perceived as a weakening of defense capabilities, while security measures and readiness to repel threats remain priorities for the state, meaning the country will not agree to a ceasefire.

Official Tehran has already sent a 10-point response to the initiatives of the Republican administration, providing for a halt in hostilities and the creation of a security protocol for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The document was reinforced by a statement from the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which said that this strategically important sea route, through which a significant share of the world’s oil passes, has undergone “irreversible strategic changes” and is coming under local control, which would put an end to foreign dominance, particularly by the United States and Israel. Market participants are now awaiting a reaction from the White House, whose head, Donald Trump, had previously promised to send the Islamic republic back to the “Stone Age” if the negotiation process failed to produce results.

For now, however, their focus remains on US labor market data: the March nonfarm payrolls report reflected the creation of 178.0K jobs, almost three times above the consensus forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, strengthening confidence that the US Federal Reserve will keep current monetary parameters in place for longer than previously expected.

Thus, analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute Inc. no longer forecast a reduction in borrowing costs this year, citing uncertainty over inflation dynamics and persistent geopolitical risks, while their counterparts at Citigroup Inc. have postponed the timing of the first adjustment from June to September. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on durable goods orders data: forecasts suggest that the indicator will decline by 0.1% month-on-month after previously showing no change, which would reflect only a seasonal drop in demand without affecting the crisis in the energy sector, while the core indicator is expected to rise from 0.4% to 0.5%.

The global gold market is currently valued at about $31.0T, while the total volume of this precious metal mined throughout human history had reached nearly 220.0K tonnes by the end of 2025, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC): the largest share is concentrated in jewelry at 44.0%, followed by bars and coins at 21.0%, while central bank reserves account for 18.0%. The remainder is distributed between industrial use (10.0%), over-the-counter investments (5.0%), and ETFs (2.0%). In turn, the segment available for investment is estimated at more than $15.0T, including around $9.0T in physical bars, coins, and over-the-counter funds, about $5.0T in central bank reserves, and nearly $1.5T in derivatives. At the same time, the share of XAU in global portfolios remains minimal: investment gold accounts for about 3.0% of the estimated $320.0T in global financial assets.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are attempting to reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD is rising, maintaining a relatively weak signal while remaining above the signal line. Stochastic, having retreated from its maximum values, has turned downward, signaling the possible development of a corrective bearish trend in the near term.

Resistance levels: 4735.70, 4800.16, 4900.00, 5000.00.

Support levels: 4600.00, 4549.78, 4500.00, 4400.00.

Trading scenarios and XAU/USD forecast

Short positions may be opened after a confident breakout below 4600.00, with a target at 4400.00. Stop-loss - 4700.00. Timeframe for implementation: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 4600.00 as support, followed by a breakout above 4735.70, may become a signal for opening long positions with a target at 5000.00. Stop-loss - 4600.00.