Investor and forex trader attention is focused on new comments from President Donald Trump, who stated on Sunday via Truth Social that Iran's time to meet his conditions is running out. Analysts suggest that Washington paused military operations in the Persian Gulf region during the Trump–Xi summit, hoping to secure Chinese cooperation in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz — but the US apparently failed to reach agreement on the geopolitical dimension of the issue and will now need to address it independently. On the economic side, Beijing will purchase $17.0 billion in agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to the 25.0 million tonnes agreed upon in October. The White House also announced that China will increase market supplies of several rare earth metals — including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium — though Chinese government sources have not yet confirmed this.
Eurozone
The euro is weakening against the pound but strengthening against the yen and the US dollar.
The G7 Finance Ministers' Summit begins today, with officials set to discuss the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict and volatility in global bond markets, as well as seeking common ground on addressing global imbalances. Critical minerals and rare earth elements — essential for the production of electric vehicles, defense systems, electronics, and other goods — will also be on the agenda, with governments planning to coordinate efforts to reduce dependence on China, which dominates global supply of these materials. Participants are also expected to address specific market stabilization and investment incentive measures, including the development of collective purchasing mechanisms, trade tariff frameworks, and price caps on certain categories of goods.
United Kingdom
The pound is strengthening against the US dollar, the yen, and the euro.
May housing price data from Rightmove Group Ltd. was released today: the index rose from 0.8% to 1.2% month-on-month and improved from –0.9% to –0.3% year-on-year. Analysts note that activity in the sector remains elevated but warn of a potential slowdown as the US–Iran confrontation continues and inflationary pressure on households intensifies. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the UK's economic recovery this year from 0.8% to 1.0%, though it cautioned that continued political instability could weigh on spending and investment. In response, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham — one of the leading candidates to succeed Prime Minister Keir Starmer — stated that if he leads the government, fiscal policy will remain unchanged and there will be no increase in spending or borrowing.
Japan
The yen is weakening against the euro and the pound, while showing mixed dynamics against the US dollar.
On Tuesday at 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan's preliminary first-quarter GDP data will be released. Forecasts point to growth accelerating from 0.3% to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and from 1.3% to 1.7% year-on-year. If the preliminary estimates are met, this would confirm the resilience of the Japanese economy amid the global crisis, increase the likelihood of near-term monetary tightening, and provide support for the yen.
Australia
The Australian dollar is strengthening against the yen and the US dollar, weakening against the pound, and showing mixed performance against the euro.
On Thursday at 03:30 (GMT+2), investors will turn their attention to April labor market data: unemployment is expected to hold at 4.3%, with employment rising by 15,700. If these forecasts are met, it would increase the probability of monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it would allow policymakers to focus fully on combating inflation without risking labor market destabilization.
Oil
Early morning gains in oil prices gave way to a decline, but prices are now recovering lost ground on the back of fundamental factors.
Investors believe President Trump may decide to resume military action against Iran after his Truth Social post warning that the Islamic Republic's time to meet White House conditions is running out. At the same time, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly report that global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked — a dynamic that could drive energy prices even higher. Analysts note that a physical shortage of hydrocarbons in the global economy could materialize at any moment, as the world exits the seasonally weak demand period between the end of the heating season and the start of the US summer driving season.
