Upside progress, however, is limited by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in a 92% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting. Over the longer horizon, by September 2026, cumulative cuts of up to 125 bps are anticipated. Only a string of surprisingly strong macro data could alter this scenario, though forecasts so far do not suggest such outcomes.
Today at 20:00 (GMT+2), the Fed’s Beige Book will be released, followed by Friday’s key labor market data at 14:30 (GMT+2). Consensus expects average hourly earnings to slow from 3.9% to 3.7% y/y, with a modest 0.3% m/m gain. Nonfarm payrolls are projected at +75k versus +73k previously, while unemployment could tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%.
Also on Friday, Canada will publish its August labor report. Forecasts call for a modest +7.5k jobs recovery after July’s sharp –40.8k drop. Average hourly earnings are expected to hold steady at +3.5% y/y, while unemployment may rise from 6.9% to 7.0%.
Support and Resistance
-
Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.3878, 1.3924
-
Support: 1.3765, 1.3726, 1.3685, 1.3650
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a flat formation with wide bands, leaving room for volatility. MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, with the histogram moving toward positive territory. Stochastic is also rebounding from oversold levels, confirming short-term upside potential.
Trading Scenarios
-
Primary Scenario (Intraday | BUY STOP)
-
Entry: 1.3805
-
Take Profit: 1.3878
-
Stop Loss: 1.3765
-
-
Alternative Scenario (SELL STOP)
-
Entry: 1.3760
-
Take Profit: 1.3685
-
Stop Loss: 1.3800
-
Key Levels: 1.3650, 1.3685, 1.3726, 1.3765, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.3878, 1.3924
