The gold futures market is in correction mode: last week’s CFTC data show net speculative positions declined from 253,000 to 223,600. Bulls held 178,435 contracts, while bears managed 35,589. The liquidation of long positions was nearly offset by a modest rise in shorts—most of last week’s activity has been digested by the market.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend

Technically, XAU/USD remains in a long-term uptrend, having reached the $3,500 resistance earlier this year before pulling back to the $3,177–$3,121 support zone. During May through July, prices failed to break higher and settled into a range. Short positions became attractive near $3,500–$3,430, with downside targets at $3,177–$3,121, where a bounce toward $3,263 and $3,432 is anticipated. Gold is currently trading around the 21-day EMA (trendless, reflecting a flat market) but remains above the 190-day EMA, underscoring the broader bullish structure. The RSI (14) is neutral, allowing for both long and short strategies depending on price action.

In the medium term, the trend remains bullish. Last week, gold tested support at $3,301–$3,286, then rebounded to $3,368. If bulls reclaim $3,435–$3,420, the path to $3,500 reopens. Longs from the $3,301–$3,286 area can be managed at breakeven. However, a break below the recent low of $3,267 would trigger a trend reversal, bringing shorts into play with downside targets at $3,151–$3,136.

  • Resistance: 3,432.00, 3,500.00, 3,600.00
  • Support: 3,263.00, 3,177.00, 3,121.00
Gold (XAU/USD): Major support and resistance this weekGold (XAU/USD): Major support and resistance this week

XAU/USD Trading Scenarios (Weekly Timeframe)

  • Main scenario (Buy Limit):
    Entry: 3,263.00
    Take Profit: 3,432.00
    Stop Loss: 3,178.00
    Time horizon: 9–12 days
  • Alternative scenario (Sell Stop):
    Entry: 3,177.00
    Take Profit: 2,971.00
    Stop Loss: 3,263.00
  • Key levels to watch: 3,121.00, 3,177.00, 3,263.00, 3,432.00, 3,500.00, 3,600.00

Outlook

If gold breaks below $3,177, bears will likely target $2,971 as the next major support. Alternatively, a strong rebound from $3,263 or a breakout above $3,432 could pave the way for a retest of the $3,500 resistance zone. The broader uptrend remains intact above $3,121, but in the short term, XAU/USD is likely to trade within established channel boundaries as macro and geopolitical risks evolve.