In the third quarter, GDP is expected to edge up from 0.1% to 0.2% q/q and ease from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y. Indirect confirmation of underlying stability comes from October retail sales, which were flat m/m while accelerating from 1.2% to 1.5% y/y, as well as the November business activity reports that showed expansion in both sectors and pushed the composite PMI from 52.5 to 52.8. In addition, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said inflation in the region is unlikely to fall below the 2.0% target early next year: according to the ECB’s latest forecasts from September, consumer prices are expected to rise 2.1% this year, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Lane also stressed there is no need to react to short-term deviations in the data.
The US dollar index (USDX) is trading near 98.90, maintaining a neutral trajectory. Initial jobless claims dropped from 218,000 to 191,000 last week, the lowest level since January 2024, while continuing claims slipped from 1.943 million to 1.939 million. Even so, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy remains unchanged and, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets still see an 88.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the 10 December meeting.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the resistance line of an ascending channel with boundaries at 1.1900–1.1500.
Technical indicators are holding a fragile buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator sit just above the signal line, widening their spread, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is forming corrective bars and drifting higher in positive territory.
Resistance levels: 1.1730, 1.1920.
Support levels: 1.1570, 1.1400.
Trading scenarios and EUR/USD forecast
Long positions can be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 1.1730 with a target at 1.1920. Stop-loss: 1.1650. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
Short positions can be considered after a decline and consolidation below 1.1570 with a target at 1.1400. Stop-loss: around 1.1630.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 1.1730 |
| Take Profit | 1.1920 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1650 |
| Key levels | 1.1400, 1.1570, 1.1730, 1.1920 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 1.1570 |
| Take Profit | 1.1400 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1630 |
| Key levels | 1.1400, 1.1570, 1.1730, 1.1920 |