The current uncertainty is tied to anticipation of key U.S. labor market data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s next steps, as well as investor concerns ahead of the UK’s upcoming autumn budget. On Tuesday, the pound weakened sharply following government reshuffles: Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointed former Bank of England Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik as his chief economic adviser and moved Darren Jones, previously deputy to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, into the role of Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Markets interpreted these changes as signs of weakened Treasury influence and budget difficulties, including potential corporate tax hikes, prompting investors to sell the pound and pushing 30-year gilt yields to 5.70%—the highest level since 1998.

At present, however, market focus has shifted back to U.S. monetary factors, allowing GBP/USD to resume growth. Analysts expect today’s U.S. labor report at 14:30 (GMT+2) to confirm further cooling in the sector: unemployment is forecast to rise to 4.3%, with nonfarm payrolls adding 75,000 jobs, potentially forcing the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting. If confirmed, the dollar could weaken against major peers, shaping the near-term forex forecast for the pound.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is close to 1.3489 (Murray [5/8], middle Bollinger Band). A breakout above this level may extend the move toward 1.3611 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.3672 (Murray [8/8]). Key bearish support lies at 1.3367 (Murray [3/8]); a breakdown here could trigger declines toward 1.3245 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.3184 (Murray [0/8], Fibonacci 38.2%)

Indicators show mixed signals: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD hovers around the zero line with low volume, while Stochastic is turning upward.

  • Resistance: 1.3489, 1.3611, 1.3672.

  • Support: 1.3367, 1.3245, 1.3184.

Trading Scenarios

  • Long positions may be opened above 1.3489 with targets at 1.3611 and 1.3672, stop-loss at 1.3400. Implementation: 5–7 days.

  • Short positions may be opened below 1.3367 with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3184, stop-loss at 1.3450.

GBP/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendations: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 1.3490

  • Take Profit: 1.3611, 1.3672

  • Stop Loss: 1.3400

  • Key Levels: 1.3184, 1.3245, 1.3367, 1.3489, 1.3611, 1.3672

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendations: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 1.3365

  • Take Profit: 1.3245, 1.3184

  • Stop Loss: 1.3450

  • Key Levels: 1.3184, 1.3245, 1.3367, 1.3489, 1.3611, 1.3672