In August, Switzerland’s national consumer price index stood at 107.7 points, slipping from 0.0% to –0.1% month-over-month, while remaining at 0.2% year-over-year. Analysts note that the decline was driven by lower prices for overseas travel packages and air transport, which offset rising costs for clothing and footwear. Preliminary labor market figures suggest that seasonally adjusted unemployment may edge higher from 2.7% to 2.8%, indicating little pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to adjust monetary policy.

The US dollar is holding around 98.0 points in the USDX, reacting neutrally to preliminary nonfarm employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which showed job creation falling from 103,000 to 54,000 in August. Since the report missed forecasts of 73,000, today’s official release from the US Department of Labor at 14:30 (GMT+2) may also show weaker dynamics, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut at its September 17 meeting. This backdrop makes the current analysis relevant as part of today’s forex forecast.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is correcting below the resistance line of the descending channel with dynamic borders at 0.8150–0.7600.

Technical indicators show a mixed sell signal: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are almost aligned with the signal line, while the AO histogram remains below the zero level.

  • Resistance levels: 0.8100, 0.8290.

  • Support levels: 0.7990, 0.7790.

Trading Scenarios

  • Long positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 0.8100, with a target at 0.8290. Stop-loss — 0.8030. Implementation timeframe: 7 days or more.

  • Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 0.7990, with a target at 0.7790. Stop-loss — 0.8080.

USD/CHF

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendations: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.8105

  • Take Profit: 0.8290

  • Stop Loss: 0.8030

  • Key Levels: 0.7790, 0.7990, 0.8100, 0.8290

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendations: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.7985

  • Take Profit: 0.7790

  • Stop Loss: 0.8080

  • Key Levels: 0.7790, 0.7990, 0.8100, 0.8290