The yen is trading with some instability after the release of household spending data, which increased the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its next meeting. Household spending in July rose by 1.7% after –5.2% in the previous month, while the annual figure improved to 1.4% from 1.3% (forecast: 2.2%). Total employee income also climbed 4.1% after 3.1%, while overtime pay jumped 3.3% after 0.5%. Such dynamics suggest inflation could surpass the 2.0% target if the regulator fails to act, which would negatively impact economic growth. The yen also remains closely tied to the U.S. dollar, meaning shifts in Federal Reserve policy directly influence its trajectory. Given the 98% probability of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting, the Bank of Japan may also adjust its monetary stance — an important signal for traders building their прогноз курс форекс strategies.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is holding near 98.00 on the USDX. Markets continue to monitor the Fed, which faces pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates. Additional focus fell on the labor market data released yesterday: the ADP report showed a modest 54,000 new private-sector jobs in August, down from 106,000 and below the forecast of 73,000 — reinforcing expectations for a September Fed rate adjustment.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the price is moving within an uptrend, attempting to reach the resistance line of the ascending channel with boundaries at 152.00–145.00

Technical indicators maintain a strengthening buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, while the AO histogram, positioned above zero, is forming new corrective bars.

  • Resistance levels: 149.20, 152.40

  • Support levels: 147.10, 143.30

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy positions become relevant if the price breaks above 149.20, targeting 152.40. Stop-loss at 148.00. Implementation horizon: 7+ days.

  • Sell positions may be considered if the price consolidates below 147.10, targeting 143.30. Stop-loss at 148.20.

USD/JPYScenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 149.25

  • Take Profit: 152.40

  • Stop Loss: 148.00

  • Key Levels: 143.30, 147.10, 149.20, 152.40

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 147.05

  • Take Profit: 143.30

  • Stop Loss: 148.20

  • Key Levels: 143.30, 147.10, 149.20, 152.40