Following the jobs data, CME FedWatch Tool showed a 79.7% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, with growing expectations for another cut in October.

In Switzerland, July CPI came in flat (0.0%), surprising to the upside versus the –0.2% consensus, increasing the chance that the SNB could consider a rate hike at its next meeting on September 25. However, today’s weaker-than-expected procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (48.8, vs. 49.8 forecast and 49.6 prior) limits Swiss franc upside, as it signals slowing industrial activity and potential downward pressure on GDP.

Looking ahead, USD/CHF price action will be influenced by upcoming US macro releases and Friday’s Swiss SECO consumer confidence data for Q3, expected to improve to –30.0 from –39.0. A downside break below 0.8036 could open the path toward new yearly lows near 0.7897.

Technical Analysis: Long-Term and Medium-Term Trends

The long-term trend remains bearish, with a corrective bounce in late July reaching the 0.8150 resistance before sellers regained control and drove price toward the 0.8036 support. Breaking below 0.8036 could intensify downside pressure toward the yearly low at 0.7897.

The medium-term trend is also bearish. Last week’s bounce topped out in the key 0.8177–0.8149 resistance zone, firmly held by sellers. The first target for shorts is 0.8025, followed by 0.7872. For any meaningful trend reversal, bulls need to break and hold above 0.8177.

  • Resistance: 0.8150, 0.8250, 0.8440
  • Support: 0.8036, 0.7897, 0.7822
USD/CHF: Key support and resistance for the weekUSD/CHF: Key support and resistance for the week

USD/CHF Trading Scenarios (Weekly Timeframe)

  • Main scenario (Sell Limit):
    Entry: 0.8150
    Take Profit: 0.8036
    Stop Loss: 0.8200
    Time horizon: 9–12 days
  • Alternative scenario (Buy Stop):
    Entry: 0.8205
    Take Profit: 0.8325
    Stop Loss: 0.8142
  • Key levels to watch: 0.7822, 0.7897, 0.8036, 0.8150, 0.8250, 0.8440

Outlook

As long as the 0.8150–0.8177 resistance zone caps rallies, the bias remains bearish with downside risk toward 0.8036 and below. A break and close above 0.8200–0.8250 would be required for a bullish reversal. Watch for upcoming US and Swiss data to drive the next move in the pair.