Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Consolidates at $4,542 as Fed Hawks, Iran Tensions and Goldman Rate Revision Weigh

On a monthly basis, the Producer Price Index rose from 0.7% to 1.4% against a forecast of 0.5%, while the annual reading accelerated from 4.3% to 6.0% versus the expected 4.9%. The core indicator climbed from 0.2% to 1.0% month-on-month and from 4.0% to 5.2% year-on-year, confirming a significant intensification of price pressures. Against this backdrop, markets are actively repricing their expectations for potential Fed tightening before year-end, with the CME FedWatch Tool currently placing the probability of the rate remaining in the 3.50–3.75% range at the June meeting at 98.9%. In an interview with Fortune magazine, President Donald Trump stated that borrowing costs may remain unchanged until the Middle East conflict is resolved, as energy supply disruptions have been the primary driver of both producer and consumer inflation. It is worth noting that on May 11, Goldman Sachs revised its timeline for a Fed policy shift: instead of cuts in September and December, the bank now expects a return to dovish rhetoric only in December 2026 and March 2027. Market participants will look for further clues about Fed officials' intentions in the minutes of the April meeting — the last to be chaired by Jerome Powell. His successor, Kevin Warsh, is known for his support of balance sheet reduction and a more restrictive monetary policy stance, and his arrival has been interpreted by markets as a signal that rates will remain elevated for longer — a development that is traditionally bearish for gold.

It is also worth noting that Middle East tensions escalated again over the weekend. President Trump, returning from China without having achieved significant results, made a series of hawkish statements regarding Iran, warning that the deadline for a peace agreement is approaching and that the consequences of failure to reach a deal would be extremely severe. According to The New York Times, the Pentagon has developed several new special operations plans should Iranian authorities refuse to compromise — including massive airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure and the deployment of special forces units to locate nuclear materials stored deep underground. The shift in rhetoric comes as Iranian forces continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant disruptions to commercial shipping that have already driven a sharp rise in energy prices and are intensifying the risk of a global economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, according to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, net speculative long positions in gold increased to 171,600 contracts last week from 163,300 the week before. Looking at the breakdown, real money long positions stood at 129,070 contracts versus 28,443 for shorts. Buyers opened an additional 4,403 contracts over the week, while sellers reduced their positions by 560 contracts.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are turning horizontal: the price range is barely changing but remains wide enough for the current level of activity. The MACD is declining, maintaining its existing sell signal below the signal line. The Stochastic, having approached the 20 level, has flattened out, reflecting the mixed character of trading at the start of the current week.

Resistance levels: 4,600.00, 4,657.61, 4,698.86, 4,764.67.

Support levels: 4,549.78, 4,500.00, 4,400.00, 4,350.00.

XAU/USD Trading Scenarios and Gold Price Forecast

Short positions should be considered after a confirmed downside breakout of 4,500.00, targeting 4,400.00, with a stop-loss at 4,549.78. Time horizon: 1–2 days.

A corrective move followed by an upside breakout of 4,600.00 may serve as a signal to open long positions targeting 4,698.86, with a stop-loss at 4,549.78.