XAU/USD Holds Near $4,719 as Middle East Tensions Keep Gold Volatility Elevated

The two-week ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on April 8 remains highly fragile and is accompanied by elevated geopolitical uncertainty, as Pakistan-mediated negotiations have effectively failed to deliver meaningful progress amid major disagreements over unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles up to 20.0% of global oil supplies and a significant share of liquefied natural gas exports.

At the same time, Iranian authorities continue to point to a lack of trust in the negotiations and the absence of any real conditions for reaching an agreement, while parallel escalation in the region — including new Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Beirut and statements from Tehran that talks cannot continue until military operations against its allies come to an end — is increasing the risk of further destabilization. Against this backdrop, oil prices, which had previously fallen on reports that dialogue between the opposing sides had begun, have resumed their upward movement, rising by as much as 3.0–5.0% in some sessions, while the geopolitical premium in gold prices, reflected in XAU/USD, remains elevated and is marked by significant intraday volatility in a 1.5–2.5% range.

It is also worth noting that President Donald Trump announced restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz involving NATO allies, while also acknowledging that energy prices may remain elevated in the short term and could rise by a further 5.0–10.0% before the situation stabilizes, adding to inflation risks. Analysts note that an extended period of peak oil prices could significantly damage the Republican Party’s ratings, which have already been under pressure recently due to the administration’s highly aggressive foreign policy stance. Congressional midterm elections are scheduled for November, and polling averages currently show a gap of 2.0–6.0 percentage points in key districts. Given the high level of voter polarization and the share of undecided voters at around 8.0–12.0%, this creates conditions for a redistribution of 15–25 seats in the House of Representatives, which could be enough to shift the majority to the opposition.

Meanwhile, trading activity in the gold market remains elevated and, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative long positions in gold declined slightly last week to 156.3K from 163.2K previously. A closer look at the data shows that investors are still maintaining large bullish positions: the balance of money-backed bullish contracts stood at 122.382K versus 30.269K for bearish ones. Last week, buyers added another 1.845K contracts, while sellers opened 3.605K.

Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on US existing home sales data, which is expected to slow from 4.09 million to 4.07 million and could put local pressure on the US dollar.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are turning higher, while the price range is narrowing, reflecting mixed trading conditions in the ultra-short term.

MACD is rising and maintains a relatively strong buy signal, remaining above the signal line. Stochastic, by contrast, points to the development of a corrective bearish trend in the near-term timeframes.

Resistance levels: 4800.16, 4900.00, 5000.00, 5119.19.

Support levels: 4698.86, 4600.00, 4549.78, 4500.00.

XAU/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast

Short positions may be considered after a confident break below 4600.00 with a target at 4400.00. Stop-loss: 4698.86. Timeframe: 2–3 days.

A return of bullish momentum followed by a breakout above 4800.16 could signal new long positions with a target at 5000.00. Stop-loss: 4698.86.

Gold remains firm as geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand, even as the market enters a short-term consolidation phase. A break above 4800.16 could restore bullish momentum toward 5000.00, while a move below 4600.00 would increase the risk of a deeper corrective decline.