The euro's recent price action is also shaped by disappointing macro data. Eurozone retail sales, reported yesterday, dropped from 0.3% to –0.7% on a monthly basis, while annual growth slowed sharply from 2.7% to 1.8%. This weakness has contributed to renewed downward pressure on the single currency.
The US dollar index (USDX) continues to display high volatility, trading near 96.90 and retreating from yesterday’s lows as markets remain cautious about the looming prospect of new US import tariffs. President Trump has already confirmed that, starting August 1, Japan and South Korea will face 25% tariffs on their exports to the US. He further warned that any attempts to circumvent these rates by routing goods through third countries would still incur the higher tariff rate.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels for EUR/USD
On the daily chart, the pair is attempting to rebound from the lower boundary of the rising channel (1.2100–1.1600). Technical momentum remains constructive: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are positioned above the signal line, widening the volatility range, while the Awesome Oscillator’s histogram continues to print positive, albeit corrective, bars.
- Resistance levels: 1.1820, 1.2070
- Support levels: 1.1630, 1.1370
Trading Scenarios
Bullish setup: Initiate long positions after a breakout and daily close above 1.1820, targeting 1.2070. Suggested stop-loss at 1.1730.
Bearish setup: Consider shorts after a decisive move below 1.1630, with a target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.1720.
- Timeframe: Weekly
- Buy stop: Entry 1.1820 | Take Profit 1.2070 | Stop Loss 1.1730
- Sell stop: Entry 1.1630 | Take Profit 1.1370 | Stop Loss 1.1720
- Key levels: 1.2070, 1.1820, 1.1630, 1.1370
EUR/USD: Tariffs and Macro Data Shape Outlook