Swiss labour-market data showed a modest deterioration in July. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people increased by 959, or 0.7%, to 148,002, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.1%.
The number of registered job seekers rose by 1,409 from June to 227,200 and was 17,759 higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, 45,156 vacancies were registered with regional employment centres, down by 2,088 from the previous month but 5,351 above the level recorded in July 2025.
Consumer sentiment, however, remains weak. According to SECO's latest survey, the Swiss Consumer Sentiment Index stood at -35 points in July 2026, two points below its level in July 2025. Assessments of past and expected financial conditions as well as consumers' willingness to make major purchases remained weaker than a year earlier.
The US dollar remains below its July highs after a volatile start to August. One of the major developments was the coordinated intervention in the foreign-exchange market on July 31. In an official statement, Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed that it purchased yen in coordination with the U.S. Department of the Treasury to counter excessive volatility and disorderly currency movements.
Broader pressure on the dollar has also been reinforced by weak July US labour-market data and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, a backdrop discussed in FORECK.INFO's recent US dollar outlook.
Investors are now turning their attention to US inflation. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for July will be released on Wednesday, August 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Headline CPI rose 3.5% year over year in June, so the new report could have a significant impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated that markets remained closely divided over the September decision, with a slight preference for rates to remain unchanged. These probabilities are derived from Fed Funds futures and can change quickly as new inflation and economic data are released.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, USD/CHF is correcting well above the support line of a broader ascending channel with dynamic boundaries around 0.8230 and 0.7900.
Technical indicators suggest that bullish momentum is weakening. The faster moving averages of the Alligator indicator are approaching the slower line from above, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.
Resistance levels: 0.8130, 0.8220.
Support levels: 0.8060, 0.7960.
USD/CHF Trading Scenarios and Forecast
Short positions may be considered after a decline and consolidation below 0.8060, with a target at 0.7960 and a stop-loss at 0.8130. Time horizon: seven days or more.
Long positions may be considered after a rise and consolidation above 0.8130, with a target at 0.8220 and a stop-loss around 0.8060.
