USD/CHF rises cautiously ahead of Fed meeting and Swiss data

Analysts are confident that the Fed will ease its monetary policy by cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. However, the market’s main focus remains on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. continues to operate without several key macroeconomic reports due to the ongoing government shutdown, while President Donald Trump has temporarily shifted attention toward China, with a meeting scheduled tomorrow with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Earlier, Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the shutdown is likely to continue into November, warning that public dissatisfaction will grow as many federal employees remain unpaid. The White House has cautioned that military salary payments could face delays by mid-November, potentially impacting Trump’s approval ratings as he still considers a military operation in Venezuela. Schumer expects this pressure could force Republicans to compromise on the fiscal 2026 budget negotiations.

In Switzerland, the ZEW Economic Expectations Index for October will be released today at 11:00 (GMT+2), with forecasts suggesting a slight improvement from –46.4 points. On Thursday at 10:00 (GMT+2), the KOF Leading Indicators Index is expected to rise modestly from 98.0 to 98.3, followed by Friday’s retail sales data at 09:30 (GMT+2), projected to increase by 0.2% after a –0.2% decline previously.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show a mild downward bias as the price range narrows, reflecting mixed short-term trading sentiment. The MACD is attempting to turn bullish but still signals selling pressure, with the histogram below the signal line. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator continues to decline but is nearing the “20” level, suggesting oversold conditions for the U.S. dollar in the short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.7986, 0.8013, 0.8050.
Support levels: 0.7909, 0.7871, 0.7828, 0.7750.

Trading Scenarios and USD/CHF Forecast

Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 0.7986 with a target at 0.8050 and a stop loss at 0.7950. Time frame: 2–3 days.

Conversely, if bearish momentum resumes and the price breaks below 0.7909, short positions could be considered with a target of 0.7828 and a stop loss at 0.7950.