CAC 40 Forecast: 8,235 in Focus After Earnings Rally

Legrand rose nearly 6% after reporting nine-month sales of €8.33 billion, up 19.5% year on year, and a 19.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders. The electrical equipment maker raised its full-year organic sales growth target to 11–13% from 8–10%, according to its nine-month results release.

Engie reported nine-month operating profit excluding nuclear activities of €7.0 billion, up 9.7% on a reported basis. It expects full-year net recurring income attributable to the group to come in at the upper end of its €4.9–5.5 billion range. Veolia reported nine-month revenue of €33.31 billion and EBITDA of €5.40 billion, up 5.1% at constant scope and exchange rates. The group reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

Bouygues gained about 3.5% after improving its full-year operating profit outlook, while ArcelorMittal rose around 3% after reporting quarterly EBITDA above expectations. TotalEnergies fell around 1% as Brent crude traded near $96 a barrel. Softer oil prices helped ease inflation concerns in the wider market while weighing on oil producers.

At France's November 2 Treasury bill auction, the weighted average yield on the bill maturing in February 2027 edged up to 2.788% from 2.787% at the October 26 auction. The May 2027 bill yielded 3.068%, down from 3.104%, while the October 2027 bill fell to 3.294% from 3.365%. A separate 52-week bill yielded 3.352%.

In secondary trading, French 10-, 20- and 30-year government bond yields stood at 4.782%, 5.205% and 5.326%, respectively, on November 4. The 10-year yield moved closer to 4.70% by midday on November 5. The decline in yields coincided with the equity rebound, following the period of pressure covered in our previous CAC 40 forecast.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the CAC 40 remains above the former descending channel, whose dynamic boundaries are around 7,700 and 7,840. The index moved through resistance at 8,235 during the morning session before returning to the breakout area. A sustained hold above 8,235 would support a test of 8,390.

The faster moving averages in the Alligator indicator are spreading out, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram continues to form bars above zero. The indicators retain a bullish bias as the index tests resistance.

Support levels: 8130.0, 7963.0.

Resistance levels: 8235.0, 8390.0.

CAC 40 Trading Scenarios and Forecast

The long setup requires the index to hold above 8235.0. Its reference entry is 8247.3, with a target at 8390.0 and a stop-loss at 8150.0. The estimated holding period is seven days or more. A sustained break below 8130.0 could support a short position targeting 7963.0, with a stop-loss at 8210.0.