DAX 40 Forecast: Energy Risks Keep 25,340 Support in Focus

Energy supply risks remain a concern for European markets. According to the Bundesnetzagentur’s gas supply assessment dated October 28, German storage facilities are 61.6% full, equivalent to 152.5 TWh and significantly below levels recorded in comparable periods of previous years. However, the regulator describes gas supplies as stable and assesses the risk of supply constraints as low. Developments in the Middle East continue to affect European wholesale gas prices, while the impact on household tariffs depends on the duration of the conflict, suppliers’ procurement strategies and contractual terms. The implications of energy costs for German equities were also discussed in our previous DAX 40 forecast.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings and the European Central Bank’s October 29 policy decision remain in focus. The original market snapshot places the German 10-year government bond yield at 3.355%, compared with 3.403% in the earlier reference period. The 20-year yield stands at 3.684%, versus 3.741%, while the 30-year yield is 3.690%, down from 3.742%. Expectations that the ECB could leave interest rates unchanged form part of the backdrop to this analysis.

Among the gainers in the supplied equity-market snapshot were Infineon Technologies AG (+4.76%), Siemens Energy AG (+4.40%), Siemens AG (+1.84%), RWE AG (+1.52%) and Commerzbank AG (+1.40%).

Decliners included Mercedes-Benz Group AG (–3.86%), Beiersdorf AG (–3.30%), BMW AG (–1.77%), Adidas AG (–1.50%) and Daimler Truck Holding AG (–1.49%).

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the index is undergoing a correction near the resistance line of a local descending channel that began forming in late summer. The channel’s approximate boundaries are 25550.0–24490.0.

Technical indicators maintain a tentative sell signal: the fast exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the Alligator indicator remain below the slow ones, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is forming corrective bars in negative territory.

Support levels: 25340.0, 24680.0.

Resistance levels: 25810.0, 26400.0.

DAX 40 Trading Scenarios and Index Forecast

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 25340.0, with a target at 24680.0. Stop-loss: 25600.0. Estimated holding period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 25810.0, with a target at 26400.0. Stop-loss: 25400.0.