Dollar Slips and Oil Falls as Markets Reprice Fed and Iran Risks
United States. The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen today while posting moderate losses against the euro and the British pound.
Markets
16
May
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By Sagar Dua - 147
USD/JPY is trading sideways around 158.50, slowly drifting toward the key 160.00 level amid broad US dollar strength and fresh commentary from Bank of Japan officials.
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By Sagar Dua
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Shares of McDonald's Corp., the world's largest fast food chain, are trading at $275.00.
15
May
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By Sagar Dua
- 155
Against a backdrop of broad dollar strength driven by stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data, EUR/USD has pulled back into the support zone of 1.1650–1.1583, from which a recovery could emerge.
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By Sagar Dua
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United States. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, and the yen.
13
May
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By Sagar Dua
- 143
The US dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, and the yen.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the morning session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3538, extending yesterday’s downward momentum formed against the backdrop of incoming macroeconomic statistics.
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By Sagar Dua
- 153
The European currency is posting a modest decline against the US dollar during the Asian session, extending its corrective impulse and testing the 1.1730 level for a downside breakout, as investors await the release of eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter today at 11:00 (GMT+2): the figure is expected to rise 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year.
European Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has previously warned that an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a significant slowdown in the regional economy (by at least –0.2% to as much as –6.0%), stressing that the scale of potential losses will depend on how long the Middle Eastern conflict persists. Should the negative trend continue in the coming months, EU public debt — which has already exceeded 82.0% of GDP and stands at €15.3 trillion — will continue to climb, while price pressures will intensify.
Market participants are also digesting April inflation data from Germany: the monthly reading eased from 1.1% to 0.6%, while the annual figure moved from 2.7% to 2.9%; the harmonised indicator shifted from 1.2% to 0.5% month-on-month and from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, thereby confirming the impact of the energy crisis. Meanwhile, the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research Economic Sentiment Index improved from –17.2 points to –10.2 points against a preliminary estimate of –19.2 points; however, the Current Economic Conditions Index fell from –73.7 points to –77.8 points, a larger decline than analysts had anticipated. Commenting on the data, ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that investors still hope for an early resolution to the US–Iran standoff, yet weak industrial output, rising energy costs, and inflation running above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2.0% target continue to exert unprecedented pressure on the German economy.
US market participants are also reviewing inflation statistics: the Consumer Price Index for April slipped from 0.9% to 0.6% month-on-month but rose from 3.3% to 3.8% year-on-year, beating the preliminary estimate of 3.7% and reaching its highest level since September 2023 — a move driven entirely by the sharp surge in energy prices amid the US–Iran confrontation. The core indicator, which excludes food and energy costs, gained 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, significantly strengthening the hand of hawks within the Federal Reserve.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of the interest rate remaining in the 3.50–3.75% range at the June 17 meeting currently stands at a record 97.6%. In addition, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has firmly established itself above 4.40%, placing direct downward pressure on the euro. Although the unemployment rate held at 4.3% and initial jobless claims remain near historically low levels, rising labour productivity and accelerating inflation suggest that monetary authorities will be compelled to maintain a restrictive policy stance for a prolonged period, thereby underpinning the US dollar.
At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be published, reflecting changes in wholesale goods prices across raw materials, semi-finished goods, and final products. Current forecasts suggest the annual reading will accelerate from 4.0% to 4.9%, with the core indicator rising from 3.8% to 4.3%.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are displaying flat dynamics: the price range is narrowing slightly, constraining bulls from updating local highs. The MACD is turning downward, forming a new sell signal and attempting to consolidate below the signal line. The Stochastic is showing similar behaviour, turning lower from near the 80 level, which signals overbought risks for the single currency in the ultra-short-term outlook.
Resistance levels: 1.1738, 1.1764, 1.1800, 1.1850.
Support levels: 1.1721, 1.1700, 1.1681, 1.1655.
EUR/USD Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast
Short positions should be considered following a convincing downside breakout of 1.1721, targeting 1.1681. Stop-loss: 1.1738. Time horizon: 1–2 days.
A return of bullish momentum with a subsequent upside breakout of 1.1764 may serve as a signal to open new long positions targeting 1.1800. Stop-loss: 1.1745.
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.1720 |
| Take Profit | 1.1681 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1738 |
| Key Levels | 1.1655, 1.1681, 1.1700, 1.1721, 1.1738, 1.1764, 1.1800, 1.1850 |
| Alternative Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.1765 |
| Take Profit | 1.1800 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1745 |
| Key Levels | 1.1655, 1.1681, 1.1700, 1.1721, 1.1738, 1.1764, 1.1800, 1.1850 |
12
May
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By Sagar Dua
- 166
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1755 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are keeping oil prices above the 100.00 level, while deliverable commodity futures remain in the 120.00–140.00 area.
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By Sagar Dua
- 151
United States of America. The US dollar is weakening against the euro and the pound but strengthening against the yen.
11
May
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By Sagar Dua
- 180
During the morning session, XAU/USD is correcting after a strong rise last week and is testing the 4680.00 mark for a downward breakout, while market participants assess the latest macroeconomic data from the United States.
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By Sagar Dua
- 159
During the morning session, Brent Crude Oil prices are rising slightly after opening with a notable upward gap following last week’s negative close. The instrument is testing the 103.20 mark, while investors assess the latest U.S. labor market data. In April, nonfarm payrolls changed from 185.0 thousand to 115.0 thousand, significantly above the expected 62.0 thousand. Average hourly earnings accelerated from 3.4% to 3.6% year-on-year, although analysts had expected 3.8%, while the monthly figure remained at 0.2% compared with forecasts of 0.3%. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.3%, in line with analysts’ expectations. Investors also paid attention to the revision of inflation expectations by the University of Michigan: one-year expectations in May declined from 4.7% to 4.5%, while five-year expectations eased from 3.5% to 3.4%.
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By Sagar Dua
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The U.S. dollar is showing moderate gains against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY holding near the 157.00 mark during the Asian session. Market activity remains limited, as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of key catalysts.
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